Posted on 05/22/2012 4:50:25 AM PDT by SJackson
- FrontPage Magazine - http://frontpagemag.com -
Is Russia Itching for War with Georgia?
Posted By Ryan Mauro On May 22, 2012 @ 12:25 am In Daily Mailer,FrontPage | 5 Comments
No one expected Russia to become a major campaign issue in 2008 when it went to war with Georgia, ripping away the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now, there are signs that Russia is itching for a rematch that would finish off the pro-American Georgian regime led by Mikheil Saakashvili.
Russia recently announced that it seized 10 caches of arms on May 4 and 5 in Abkhazia which were to be used in dramatic terrorist attacks in Sochi, where the 2014 Winter Olympics are to take place. The stockpiles included: 10,000 rounds of ammunition; 15 kilograms of TNT; 50 grenade fuses; 39 hand grenades; 36 mortar shells; 29 grenade launchers; 15 landmines; 12 improvised explosive devices; 3 surface-to-air missiles; 2 anti-tank missiles; 2 assault rifles and a sniper rifle, mortar and flamethrower.
The Russian government says that the man responsible for the planned wave of attacks is Doku Umarov, a Chechen terrorist leader involved with Al-Qaeda. He ordered an end to attacks on Russian civilians earlier this year. Georgian intelligence helped Umarov’s terrorists smuggle the weapons through Georgian territory from Turkey, the Russians claim. Georgia dismisses the accusations as “absolutely absurd.” The accusation provides a clear rationale to remove Saakashvili from power.
This development comes while Russia is preparing for a possible strike on Iran. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin explained, “Iran is our neighbor. If Iran is involved in any military action, it’s a direct threat to our security.” Reportedly, Russia has drawn up plans to send forces to Armenia in such an event, which requires going through Georgia, toppling Saakashvili on the way.
In 2008, Russia’s annual Kavkaz exercises were used as a cover to deploy and train the forces that invaded Georgia the next month. This year’s exercises are to take place in September. Russia announced that Spetsnaz units will be sent to the North Caucasus region for the exercises and airborne assault forces and attack helicopters will deploy to Base 102 in Gyumri, Armenia. One report claims that the families of soldiers at the base have already been evacuated.
It is quite possible that Russia will provide assistance to the Iranian regime from Armenia in the event of a conflict. After all, Saddam Hussein awarded medals to former Soviet advisors for helping him to prepare for the 2003 invasion. Russian Spetsnaz units were deployed to Iraq and are suspected of having helped cleanse the country of documents and incriminating materials. The Russians also gave Saddam Hussein details about the U.S. war plan, retrieved through a spy at CENTCOM. Russia continues to arm Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and deployed an “anti-terror” unit to assist him in March.
There are also strategic and economic benefits for Russia and Iran if Georgia is invaded. Europe gets about 1 million barrels of oil per day from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan through a pipeline that goes from Baku to Tbilisi, Georgia to Ceyhan, Turkey. It goes around Russian and Iranian territory. In the 2008 war, Russian aircraft were witnessed bombing it. By invading Georgia, Russia gets control of that critical pipeline.
The Russians have sought the overthrow of Saakashvili ever since the 2008 war and has consistently claimed that he’s sponsoring jihadist terrorism to justify future action. One Russian lieutenant that was interviewed during the last war said, “It [South Ossetia] will be Russia. And Georgia used to be Russian, too.”
In 2009, Russia warned Georgia of severe consequences if it permitted NATO to hold military exercises on its land. In April, Russian forces moved to within 25 miles of Tbilisi. The next month, a coup was launched against Saakashvili from a base near the capital but it was quickly quelled. One of the participants, a former special forces major, told his interrogators that Russia had engineered it. The Russians planned to send 5,000 soldiers to reinforce the rebels as they approached the capital, he said. The Georgian government said the coup plotters were paid by Russia.
In August 2009, Russia accused Georgia of orchestrating an Al-Qaeda suicide bombing in Ingushetia. Russia immediately cast suspicion on Georgia after the March 29, 2010 subway bombings in Moscow. The Deputy Foreign Minister said that Saakashvili is “unpredictable” and could strike at any moment.
Hypocritically, it’s Russia that’s been sponsoring the covert attacks. A secret U.S. intelligence report from 2007 reveals that the Russian GRU has been behind a number of violent “active measures” in Georgia since 2004, including the killing of Georgian cops, a 2005 car bombing, two attacks on the Georgian-Russian pipeline in 2006, the sabotage of a vital power line and the arming of separatists. Russia was also responsible for an explosion next to the U.S. embassy in Tbilisi on September 22, 2010.
In February 2011, Saakashvili asked the U.S. to put anti-ballistic missile radar in Georgia, infuriating Russia. If Russia threatened to militarily destroy any ABM systems put into Eastern Europe, you can imagine how seriously Russia takes a request to assemble them in Georgia.
Russia has made no secret of its desire to get rid of Saakashvili once and for all. In 2005, Vladimir Putin called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century. That is the mindset we’re dealing with.
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If Georgia needs help, it sure won’t get it from the US. Georgia is toast if Putin wants to expend the effort.
Knowing Russia, they would join in on the raid on Iran, take Georgia, get to the border, then go to the UN and demand a cease fire on Iran’s part.
And they would keep Georgia and blame the US for aggression against a soverign nation. And of course it would be George Bush’s fault.
...soetoro frozen into inaction....
Generally, all the Russians never forget anything.
From the title...
Not if the “Keldara” are still active
“GHOST” a novel by John Ringo.
Russia wants to take control of the world’s supply of boiled peanuts?
What Vlad really wants back is the Ukraine. Georgia is just the warm up. We should already have installed that misille sheild in Poland but until we get rid of the muslim marxist that ain’t happening.
Georgia is the filling in the sandwich made up of the Black Sea & Caspian Sea. Geographically, it’s helpless.
Ukraine is huge and politically handicapped only by the Volga River divide. It is a much tougher nut for the Russkies to crack.
Invade Ukraine and the third European War in a century will break out.
Those of us in the Atlanta area say, “Bring in on, you commie sissies!” ;-D
I believe you are thinking of the river Dneiper.
However, your point about Ukraine being "Huge" is well put. The Germans found that out in WW-2.
Ukrainians are Ukrainians, not Russians, transplants under Stalin notwithstanding. There are still those that remember the "Holodomor", the destroyed churches and the terror tactics so casually used by the Russians to keep them in line.
My mistake on rivers. But isn’t there said to be a divide between western & eastern Ukraine? One is pro-West & Catholic, the other russophilic & Orthodox. And how many Russians live in Ukraine & what is their influence or capacity for subversion?
FWIW I was deployed to Uzbekistan some years ago. The Uzbeks still spoke Russian, looked to Russia as liberal & western (compared to nearby Afghanistan!) but the Russian percentage had shrunk from thirty percent under communism to less than seven percent since 1991. And a huge number of Uzbeks live & work in Russia where there are more jobs.
I figure there is far less animosity between Central Asians & Russians than between Russians & Ukrainians.
If the Ukraine is not admitted to NATO which appears less likely after the Georgia/Russian conflict things will remain tenuous for Ukraine and they know it.
The Russian black fleet’s strategic base is located in Sevastopol in Crimea. The Russians have a 20 year lease on the port but they had to intimidate the Ukranians to get that lease. The actual population of Sevastopol is largely Russian and they are separatists that want the Crimea to go back to mother Russia.
In addition there is ongoing conflict between Russia and the Ukraine over the gas pipeline which the Ukrainians refuse to sell back to the Russians.
If Vlad wants the Ukraine back he can take it but if we get rid of the red diaper baby in the Whitehouse and get even Mitt on board I don’t think he will do it for the same reason he backed down on Georgia. The Russians want to be players in the Western world.
The only thing that saved Georgia was Sarkozy flying to Moscow and looking Putin and Medvedev in the eye and asking them how bad they want to be in the club. They decided the price of taking Georgia was too high and backed down. Thats the only thing that will Keep Putin out of the Ukraine. The Europeans won’t go to war over Ukraine. The European Union is in shambles. Likely the carrot stick economic strategy is the way to go with Russia.
LOLOLOL!! Everyone else seems to be!
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