Putin Begins to Notice that Putinism Has Stopped Working

Hardly more than a handful of experts in Moscow paid attention to the G8 summit in Camp-David last week-end, and President Vladimir Putin’s absence accentuated the impression that Russia does not really belong to this exclusive club. The seven leaders had to work hard to find answers to the escalating economic challenges; it is clear that Moscow has nothing to contribute to this joint effort though Russia has been affected by the economic crisis no less profoundly than France or Italy (Kommersant, May 19). Ironically, the only good news around the G8 table, where Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev sat in as an irrelevant observer, was the downward slide of oil prices, which for Russia is a grave danger (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, May 17). The Moscow Stock Exchange went from a steep decline to free-fall last week reaching a year-low but hardly finding a bottom (Gazeta.ru, May 18). The main driver behind this trend is capital flight, which reached $43 billion between January and May 2012 compared with $80.5 billion for all of 2011. This situation constitutes the clearest possible signal to Putin that his model of “manual management” of the economy has lost credibility with investors (Newsru.com, May 18).

Bad news reaches the Kremlin daily, and perhaps the most problematic has collectively involved several well-respected technocrats – from Minister for Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina to billionaire and presidential contender Mikhail Prokhorov – who refused to accept portfolios in Medvedev’s Cabinet (Vedomosti, May 18). That has complicated the reconfiguration of the ruling “tandem” because Medvedev wants to get rid of such “heavy-weights” as Igor Sechin, while Putin mistrusts “modernizers” like Yaroslav Kuzminov, the dean of the Higher School of Economics, and self-serving intriguers like Vladisalv Surkov. This bureaucratic disarray reflects not only disdain for Medvedev but also the political elite’s growing disappointment with Putin. In this respect, the elite’s attitude does not stray far from public opinion, which has re-evaluated Putin’s leadership qualities – only 7 percent characterize the new President as honest, and 12 percent view him as able to engage in constructive dialogue (Kommersant, May 17). Putin tries to compensate by boosting his popularity with the working class and has even appointed a manager from Uralvagonzavod as his envoy to the Ural district, but that cadre decision has invited ridicule rather than respect (Expert.ru, May 18).

Clearly lacking new ideas, Putin tries to fall back on old sources of strength and promotes re-industrialization driven by extra-large state corporations. The aircraft industry is supposed to be the locomotive for this revitalization. The Sukhoi Superjet 100 regional aircraft was considered the pivotal project and was supposed to capture export markets by storm as early as 2008. Instead it was delayed and captured negative attention due to the Sukhoi Superjet catastrophe in Indonesia two days after Putin’s inauguration (Moskovsky Komsomolets, May 14). Russian authorities keep pretending that nothing is wrong with the plane; some $7 billion have been invested in the project, so admitting technical faults is out of the question (Gazeta.ru, May 18). This denial of the Russian industrial base’s obvious degradation, which causes a stream of accidents – from the loss of satellites to the fire on the nuclear submarine Yekaterinburg loaded with torpedoes and missiles – reinforces the dead-end into which Putin’s course has arrived.

If industrial policy amounts to distributing huge investments and subsidies, the energy policy is supposed to generate the revenues to make this largess possible. This elementary scheme barely works because the oil and gas companies, many of which are managed by particular Kremlin loyalists, need more money for themselves, partly for heavy investment projects and partly for the absolutely essential self-enrichment (Moskovskie Novosti, May 15). Rosneft tries to increase its political value by signing a series of deals with major Western corporations, including Exxon Mobil, ENI and Statoil, whereas Russia’s flagship energy company, Gazprom, is in dire straits in its vital European market where demand is shrinking while consumers turn to spot-price contracts (RBC Daily, May 18). Gazprom denies any setbacks, and its top managers enjoy the role of patrons for football and ice hockey clubs. But even the experts from state-owned Sberbank issue warnings about mounting risks to the gas giant (Finmarket, May 18).

The unquantifiable but fast-spreading perception of Putinism’s exhaustion and decay is one of the major forces propelling the opposition activities in Moscow. The next rally, planned for June 12, is again certain to gather tens of thousands of protesters, but in the meantime Moscow is bustling with daily “walks” and moving “occupy” camps that create an atmosphere of an anti-Putin carnival, which the police is unable to suppress. Disobedience and performance shape the form of the protests rather than angry resistance. These soft methods might appear ineffectual and going nowhere, but in fact they secure broadening support from Muscovites and make the riot police look stupid. Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, installed by Medvedev in October 2010, is helpless to take charge of the fluid situation because he has no support base to mobilize (Vedomosti, May 18). The spectacular growth of civil society self-organization also prepares the ground for new political parties, like the Democratic Choice or the Republican Party. It allows these new political contenders to gain profile and to progress from the margins of the political field. Their relevance is proven in various local elections and micro-conflicts centered on abuses of power (Ogonyok, May 14).

Putin faces a challenge that appears ephemeral and virtual but is insuppressible by the “hard power” in which he firmly believes. This challenge is also immune to corruption, which constitutes the lifeblood of his bureaucratic pseudo-democracy. When Putin’s henchmen unleash the riot police against cheerful “white ribbon” protesters, it generates a burst of indignation, and when he chooses to ignore the street “nonsense” it becomes an “everybody-is-invited” party that leaves him the target of jokes. He has no good choices in the struggle for regime preservation, which was supposed to be over with the perfectly managed elections, but has become instead the quintessential substance of state policy. His loyalists do not want to hear about modernization, and the entrepreneurs with ideas and energy to implement them are fed up with his leadership. The territory of freedom in Russia is expanding, but Putin cannot in earnest understand the meaning of this word.

From Heritage.org, November 27, 2006:

The death of former Russian spy, Alexander Litvinenko, last week from radioactive Polonium-210 poisoning is the latest in a series of politically motivated attacks on the outspoken opponents of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed112706a.cfm
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"Appearing alongside high-profile opponents of President Putin, he [Alexander Litvinenko] has continued to make allegations about his former bosses. Perhaps most notably, he alleged that al-Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri was trained by the FSB in Dagestan in the years before 9/11".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6163502.stm
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Blowing up Russia: The Secret Plot to Bring Back KGB Terror
by Alexander Litvinenko, Yuri Felshtinsky, Geoffrey Andrews and Co (Translator)

Synopsis: Blowing Up Russia contains the allegations of ex-spy Alexander Litvinenko against his former spymasters in Moscow which led to his being murdered in London in November 2006. In the book he and historian Yuri Felshtinsky detail how since 1999 the Russian secret service has been hatching a plot to return to the terror that was the hallmark of the KGB. Vividly written and based on Litvinenko's 20 years of insider knowledge of Russian spy campaigns, Blowing Up Russia describes how the successor of the KGB fabricated terrorist attacks and launched a war. Writing about Litvinenko, the surviving co-author recounts how the banning of the book in Russia led to three earlier deaths.

http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Blowing-up-Russia/Alexander-Litvinenko/e/9781594032011

I like Russians more than muslims and chicoms.

Russia and the ChiComs have staged 5 joint war games since 2005.

Russia, China hold Peace Mission 2009 joint exercise

The exercise involves about 3,000 Russian and Chinese servicemen, nearly 300 units of army military equipment and over 40 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. Photo: BMP-86A infantry fighting vehicles of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China.

http://en.rian.ru/photolents/20090724/155604547.html
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[2009] Russia, China plan new joint military exercises

By MARTIN SIEFF, UPI Senior News Analyst
Published: March 26, 2009

WASHINGTON, March 26 (UPI) -- The continuing tensions over Russia's refusal to sell its state-of-the-art land warfare advanced weapons systems to China hasn't interrupted the rhythm of major joint military exercises between the two major land powers on the Eurasian landmass. The latest in the regular, biennial series of exercises between the two nations has been confirmed for this summer.

The next in the now well-established series of exercises called Peace Mission 2009 will be carried out in northeastern China, the Russian Defense Ministry announced March 18, according to a report carried by the RIA Novosti news agency.

The first bilateral Peace Mission maneuvers -- described at the time as counter-terrorism exercises -- were held in Russia and the eastern Chinese province of Shandong in August 2005. As we reported at that time, they were a lot bigger than mere counter-terrorism exercises. Warships, squadrons of combat aircraft and more than 10,000 troops were involved carrying out landings against hypothetically hostile shores. The maneuvers also involved large-scale paratroops drops. The scale and nature of those exercises suggested a trial run for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan with Russian support. ..."

http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/2009/03/26/Russia_China_plan_new_joint_military_exercises/UPI-25021238094858/
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Russia, China flex muscles in joint war games
August 17, 2007

CHEBARKUL, Russia (Reuters) - Russia and China staged their biggest joint exercises on Friday but denied this show of military prowess could lead to the formation of a counterweight to NATO.

"Today's exercises are another step towards strengthening the relations between our countries, a step towards strengthening international peace and security, and first and foremost, the security of our peoples," Putin said.

Fighter jets swooped overhead, commandos jumped from helicopters on to rooftops and the boom of artillery shells shook the firing range in Russia's Ural mountains as two of the largest armies in the world were put through their paces.

The exercises take place against a backdrop of mounting rivalry between the West, and Russia and China for influence over Central Asia, a strategic region that has huge oil, gas and mineral resources.

Russia's growing assertiveness is also causing jitters in the West. Putin announced at the firing range that Russia was resuming Soviet-era sorties by its strategic bomber aircraft near NATO airspace.

http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-29030120070817?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
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War Games: Russia, China Grow Alliance
September 23, 2005

In foreign policy it’s critical to “know thine enemy.” So American policymakers should be aware that Russia and China are inching closer to identifying a common enemy — the United States.

The two would-be superpowers held unprecedented joint military exercises Aug. 18-25. Soothingly named “Peace Mission 2005,” the drills took place on the Shandong peninsula on the Yellow Sea, and included nearly 10,000 troops. Russian long-range bombers, the army, navy, air force, marine, airborne and logistics units from both countries were also involved.

Moscow and Beijing claim the maneuvers were aimed at combating terrorism, extremism and separatism (the last a veiled reference to Taiwan), but it’s clear they were an attempt to counter-balance American military might.

Joint war games are a logical outcome of the Sino-Russian Friendship and Cooperation Treaty signed in 2001, and reflect the shared worldview and growing economic ties between the two Eastern Hemisphere giants."

http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed092605a.cfm
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"Peace Mission 2010

Looks like the military exercise between Shanghai Cooperation Organization is becoming an annual occurrence instead of bi-annual [ie, 2005, 2007, 2009].

According to rian, the next one will be this September [2010]. ..."

http://www.informationdissemination.net/2010/07/peace-mission-2010.html

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