Assume that he’ll do whatever is the most politically expedient. That makes it a close call.
On the one hand, a pardon would help solidify some of his Jewish support. How many votes is that though, exactly? I think I saw a poll here yesterday that said that almost 70% of Jewish voters still support him (AMAZING!). So, it might helps a segment of 30% of the Jewish vote return to the fold. If it helps half (and I think that’s generous), then the pardon is worth about 15% of that vote.
The tradeoff is who will become mad enough NOT to vote for him as a result. Here, you have to look at independents and that is a bigger subset of the population. If 5% of independents don’t vote for him because they are mad about this vote, that would likely be a net negative for the pardon.
There are two things they must look at before they make their decision: 1. Net plus/minus on who will become more likely to vote for/against based on the decision, and 2. Intensity of support as a result.
Intensity is a two-fold test in itself. Assume that a Jewish person not NOW supporting Obama that would support him over this pardon would do so because they are intensely interested in the outcome. Add to that those that were going to support him who are now MORE intense about it because of the pardon (donations?).
Intensity cuts both ways, to an limited extent. It’s not like Obama is going to lose my vote over this issue. Would it make me more intense about him getting defeated in Nov? Is that possible? (On a personal intensity scale, this pardon by a Republican President WOULD be enough - by itself - to lose any future support by me. Disclaimer: I’ve worked as a military cryptologist at No Such Agency in the past.)
The pardon would be a big deal in the Jewish community in re the outcome of the 2012 election.
It would also be intensely covered by the media. It would be a big deal to a subset of independents who come to believe that Obama pandered using national security to win. That would be a turnoff.
Is a net negative for a pardon greater than the positives? I think this has been the case in the past, and that is why Clinton didn’t pardon him. Obama has more ground to makeup in the Jewish community. That just might change the dynamic.
I just spouted a bunch of smoke to end up where I started: it’s a close call.
Of course if after that he lost the election he could renege on the promise. Except that if he loses his goal will be to do maximum damage to the US in the two months or so he has left.