[bill1952]

Lotsaluck. You still have to knock off 15% of Obama's voting base to win ~

No, We don't.

We have to knock off his EC votes - his predominance in NY & Cal. mean nothing.

Obama Hussein can be swept here.

I like your posts, but look at the demographics.

This is the United States, not the democracy of Athens, and the EC, and therefore the presidency, is decided by the States.

[muawiyah]

Turns out that we've only had two modern elections where the total vote was meaningless ~ tilden v. hayes, and bush v. gore ~ in the rest of them the total vote and the percentages correlated well with the polls on relative popularity.

That's why at this stage I'm looking at the general trend, not the detail in states where it might be closer.

When the time comes I will 'splain why it looks like Virginia is going to have such a low turnout and who might benefit one way or the other from that. In the meantime a Romney candidacy can win if and only if Obama gets 15% fewer votes than he did last time.

That ain't nevah' hoppen!

Still, as a general prognostication, I think the American people are tired of the Great Obama Recession and think somebody can do better ~ we have SEVERAL REPUBLICAN candidates who can elicit that confidence. We are running a guy who doesn't even elicit that confidence among Conservatives.

Not that this election is a joke ~ none of them ever are ~ but a lot of the old rules of thumb don't count this time.