The ‘Rats wouldn’t be spending money like this if they thought winning in ND were a long shot. They have a compelling sound bite: “Rick Berg voted against raising the minimum wage, but raised his own pay.” He clearly has image problems and should not have been recruited in the first place.
I think you are being overly pessimistic.
It is a small amount of money in a state where it is cheap to run an ad campaign.
The DSCC has to at least try or they look ridiculous.
The deficit vote should be a lesson on why you cannot compromise with these people. Remember when GHW Bush voilated his oath signed off on new taxes? Clinton promptly ran ads on this.
Berg is independantly wealthy. Why would a guy like that vote himself a pay raise?!