The Introduction Is Key to a Successful Romney Veep Pick

Every summer, millions of Americans enjoy baseball, summer camps and vacation plans. But for the nation's political junkies, every fourth summer is filled with guessing games about the vice presidential nomination.

While the guessing games are fun, it's more accurate to look at the fundamentals facing the candidate and what he hopes to achieve.

In the case of Mitt Romney, he is in a much better place than John McCain was four years ago. McCain was trailing badly in the polls and likely to lose unless he swung for the fences and hoped for a home run. That led him to make a risky pick and elevate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to national prominence.

Romney, however, is currently ahead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and a slight favorite to win in November. He doesn't need to swing for the fences; he needs to avoid making a foolish mistake.

Additionally, the Romney campaign wants the election to be all about President Obama and his record on the economy. Just 33 percent now give the president good or excellent marks for handling the economy. That's down 8 points from 41 percent just over a month ago. It's no coincidence that declining ratings for the president coincide with declining consumer confidence and poor jobs reports. Romney doesn't want those economic realities drowned out by a controversial vice presidential pick.

That means the ideal nominee for the Republican challenger is someone who looks capable of becoming president if needed but is bland enough not to distract attention from either Romney or the president's record.

Political pros will endlessly analyze the process Romney follows for clues as to how he might govern if elected. So far, the process appears to reflect what you expect from public perceptions of the candidate -- buttoned-up and methodical. But more important than the process of selecting the nominee will be the way the choice is rolled out to the public.

At that moment, all eyes will be on the newly famous nominee. More than likely, most Americans will learn all they know about the new name on the ticket during the week the candidate is introduced.

Consider, for example, Sen. Rob Portman from Ohio. Many see him as the frontrunner in Romney's veepstakes. He looks solid, has been reasonably well vetted in public and comes from a key swing state. His biggest negative is having served in the Bush administration, but every candidate has drawbacks -- and that's more manageable than some others.

Still, the way Portman is introduced to the public will matter more than his resume. Half the nation's likely voters (47 percent) have absolutely no opinion one way or the other on Portman. They don't know who he is. Another 43 percent have only soft opinions. They're not sure they know who he is. Just 11 percent currently have strong views one way or the other.

That means, if Portman is selected, nine out of 10 Americans will have their opinions shaped after the nominee is picked. Portman, by the way, is the rule, not the exception. Some other prospective nominees are even less well known than he is.

So enjoy the summer guessing games for now. But discount most of the political analysis until you see how Romney's choice survives his or her introduction to the nation.

My guess is he will pick Rubio. It's a "safe" pick that "pleases everyone" (not me, obviously) and although Rubio has star power, I think he'd defer to Romney.

In '08, I predicted McCain would pick Pawlenty, or Palin if he REALLY wanted to rock the boat. Got that one right. I predicted Obama would pick Webb or Selibus (Hillary without the baggage). I was way off on that.

When my mom told me Bush picked Cheney in 2000, I thought she got her information wrong. Cheney is the guy RUNNING Bush's selection committee, I told her, no way is he going to pick himself and Bush go along with it... besides, they're both from Texas. ;-)

I would love to see Rubio for the entertainment value alone. Democrats’ heads will explode.

They’ll question whether or not he is a natural born citizen and turn themselves inside out claiming he is not qualified, although he is at least if not more qualified than O and this is Veep.

I would love to see them explain how he isn’t really Hispanic - just like Clarence Thomas and Condi Rice aren’t really black.

Great fun.

So many people have Portman pegged as the most likely. His only real downside is he served Bush (so did a lot of ok people). I’d put McDonnell right up there, his only downside would the college thesis that no one cared about in the gubernatorial election. T-Paw is a possibility as well. Rubio is for sure in the mix but I’m thinking he’s less likely. I’d bet on 1 of those 4 being the pick.

All of those guys other than Rubio are pretty boring but in the post Obama age maybe that is a good thing. A lot of people crave serious leaders rather than the 2 circus clowns currently in office.

It was reported that Obama had 3 finalists, Biden, Kaine, and Bayh

I discounted Bayh as boring (and I refused to consider Indiana in play, I could not face such pain) and too moderate to not PO the left (he’s to the right of the HATED Lieberman).

Kaine would have made Obama look like the heavyweight. (Same thing as Gillgain-Seibelius, and picking a woman who was not Hilary would be have been a huge insult to her)

So I correctly picked “foreign policy gravitas (LOL)” Biden, out of the 3 and thought him a likely pick all along. I mean when he called Obama “clean and articulate” I saw love in the air.

I was an early advocate of Palin back when 95% of Freepers outside Alaska hadn’t heard of her (being such an election junkie I first heard of her in 2002 when she ran for LT Governor of Alaska) and she got almost no speculation in the media. We were looking for a woman and she was the only one that really jumped out despite her short tenure, obviously McCain came to the same conclusion. I don’t remember exactly how surprised I was when he actually picked her.

I first heard of Cheney when it was announced he was heading Bush’s search committee. I was a teenager and thought it was hilarious he picked himself.

It’s like if some rich hottie put me in charge of finding her a husband, I mean come on. ;-D

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