Posted on 06/27/2012 9:52:52 AM PDT by sunmars
Mitt Romney's support is up in Arizona following the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning several provisions of the state's law cracking down on illegal immigration and the Obama administration's announcement that it will not process additional illegals arrested there.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Romney with 54% support to President Obama's 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) remain undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Every election, Democrats delude themselves into thinking Arizona is "in play" because of the "huge influx of Hispanics" and Republicans delude themselves into thinking that the Jewish vote is "in play" because of the Democrats anti-Israel policies. Both sides are wasting their time trying to win over those constituencies but keep trying it election cycle after election when they get buried by the other side.
Obama could call for Isreal to be wiped off the map and he'd still win a majority of the "Jewish vote" (probably closer to 60%). A lot of Jews are secular or nonpracticing, as well as ultra liberal on domestic issues, and would vote for Adolf Hitler if he promised them a bunch of socialist goodies.
Likewise, Obama can do all the "outreach" he wants to drum out the "Hispanic vote", a lot of the "Hispanic community" isn't even 18 yet so they'd have to vote illegally just to support him (not that I wouldn't put it past Obama to try that). He can get 100% of them to vote for him in AZ, it won't make a difference because the non-hispanic whites in AZ are overwhelmingly against Obama and they make up the majority of voters. It's like trying to beat Bobby Rush in y congressional district by getting the white suburbs to vote agianst him. He could lose the white areas overwhelmingly and still carry the district handily.
“He can get 100% of them to vote for him in AZ, it won’t make a difference because the non-hispanic whites in AZ are overwhelmingly against Obama and they make up the majority of voters.”
But Obama won’t come close to 100% of the Hispanic vote in AZ—he’ll likely top out at 70%—and Romney should carry the state handily.
As for the Jewish vote, I don’t think that it is as unachievable for the GOP as you assume. Remember, the GOP doesn’t need to win a majority of the Jewish vote to beat the Democrats; if the GOP got, say, 40% of the Jewish vote, FL would become a safe GOP state, OH, NV, MI, WI, PA and NJ would lean GOP, and CT, IL and maybe even CA and NY would be in play.
And, yes, 40% of the Jewish vote is doable—ask Bob Turner. While Orthodox Jewish voters are a smaller percentage of the Jewish vote outside of NY, getting to 40% won’t take that big of a jump.
Source: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/04000.html
Minnesota will turn red before Illinois ever will!
Arizona went for Clinton in his second term and elected Janet Napolitano governor twice!
Don’t be so pessimistic. I think Romney will be an excellent president.
Maybe he’ll secede?
I agree. Romney will win in a landslide. Its the “Wilder Effect” where people who say they support Obama are lying to pollsters.
It’s still 41%? That’s too high considering what he just did
to that state!
>>Toe sucker Dick Morris may be right in predicting a landslide.
Rush has been predicting it for months as well. Once this whole “Fast and Furious” thing explodes tomorrow along with the health care thing, it’s going to illicit a “wait...Obama did WHAT?” moment in America that will give Republicans a huge majority. The problem then will be keeping them in line.
The message is simple. It must be kept simple.
The only way to hold anyone in this administration accountable is if Obama is voted out in November.
If you don’t want these abuses... this is the only recourse left.
Romney seems to be laying back and pulling his punches lately, anyone know why?
If your opponent is wounding himself on a consistent basis, sometimes the best strategy is just watch.
I went to a Dbacks game the other night. There sure are a lot of morons from Chicago living here too.
This is another great man that wants to represent my district in District #9 in Arizona. He is one great Conservative man.
This will only work with the intelligent voters which are becoming few and far between.
This will only work with the intelligent voters which are becoming few and far between.
I remember something vividly about Dick Morris right after Odumbo won in 08’ and he said it live on CNN.
He said something that in 2010, the hispanic demographics would be so big that 2010 will gain a bigger voting bloc for the Dems. We all know what happened.
Arizona was Goldwater's home state and he was a sitting U.S. Senator for them at the time of that election.
>> Arizona has 4.5 million people. Of these, 57.4% are white non-hispanic while 30.1% are hispanic. Have your HS buddy explain how his voting turnout math favors obummer. <<
Arizona may be 30% hispanic on paper, but that doesn't mean 30% of the voters are hispanic. A great many of them are non-citizens or under the age of 18 and ineligible to vote. I read somewhere (don't ask me to quote the source because it escapes me now) that only a quarter of hispanics are eligible to vote, so while do they make a large chunk of the population, they don't make up that big of a chunk of the voter pool.
>> As for the Jewish vote, I don’t think that it is as unachievable for the GOP as you assume. Remember, the GOP doesn’t need to win a majority of the Jewish vote to beat the Democrats; if the GOP got, say, 40% of the Jewish vote <<
Ronald Reagan got a grand total of 31% of the Jewish vote during his 49 state LANDSLIDE victory over Mondale. Nixon got 35% during his 49-state LANDSLIDE, while most Republicans since FDR have averaged between 10-25%. Given those facts, 40% is NOT "doable" even if Obama were to completely self-destruct. Romney could even conceivably win some states inaccessible to Bush like Michigan, but he's not going to top Ronald Reagan's popularity during the height of the Reagan revolution. If, hypothetically, he did win 49 states (which won't happen), I'd expect Romeny to pick up about 1/3rd of the Jewish vote. As I said before, I fully expect Obama could call for Israel to be wiped out and there are oogles of nonpracticing liberal Jews who don't care and will happily support him.
>> And, yes, 40% of the Jewish vote is doable—ask Bob Turner. While Orthodox Jewish voters are a smaller percentage of the Jewish vote outside of NY <<
You just explained why your own scenario won't materialize. Turner was a once-in-a-lifetime fluke, like trying to claim black urban districts are "in play" because Joseph Cao won New Orleans once. Orthodox Jews make up 40% of the "Jewish vote" in Turner's district, but only 10% nationwide. They can't be lumped in all together anymore than claiming the GOP will do well with Rev. Wright's congregation because they're "Christians" just like the "value voters" at evangelical summits. Orthodox Jews are a swing vote and lean conservative. But as I noted, they only account for 10% of Jews. The remaining 90% (Conservative, Reform, reconstructionist, secular, etc.) give between 80%-90% of their votes to the RATs and would probably vote for Yassir Arafat if he ran as a Dem. They're not "in play" for the GOP anymore than the black panthers are.
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