“I generally agree on projections. However, 25 years+ of recorded birth and death records are reality. That’s what I started from, Israel’s own public records and stats as compiled by Israeli government employees.”
...and then you made your own projection, based on your own assumptions. You pass from the acceptable to the dubious.
Based on a document from the source you cite:
http://www1.cbs.gov.il/reader/shnaton/templ_shnaton_e.html?num_tab=st02_26&CYear=2010
it looks to me like there is a projection of a rise of “Arabs” (presumably including all Muslims, but also non-Muslim Arabs) from about 20% in 2010 to less than 25% in 2030. Hardly earth-shattering, and based on whatever assumptions the compilers made in their extrapolation from the same numbers that you cite.
Regarding the birthrate of Jews there, as I already mentioned, the religious ones are reproducing at a mighty pace. The secular ones are not as much. Collectively they are still outpacing every developed country in the world, and Saudi Arabia and Iran to boot. The Israeli birthrate, based on the CIA reference that I cited, is hardly lower than the West Bank birthrate. The latter has also been dropping precipitously in the past 20 years, as has the birthrates in other Arab and Muslim nations in the Middle East.
I’m not projecting or assuming anything, all I’m saying is that population facts of what has been for 25+ years is likely to continue.
What new social or political forces could change what has happened in Israel for the last 25 years?
I don’t agree with any projection beyond 10 years, they project out 20 and I agree with you that is a stretch.
Your CIA reference states that Israel’s birthrate is lower (2.67) than the West Bank (2.98). ??