“I’m not projecting or assuming anything, all I’m saying is that population facts of what has been for 25+ years is likely to continue.”
“Likely to continue” is a linear projection. Given changing birthrates, such a projection is likely to be off. It’s a conclusion, in any case, not a fact.
“What new social or political forces could change what has happened in Israel for the last 25 years?”
Immigration rates could go up or down, as could birthrates. They have been, and likely will continue to.
“I don’t agree with any projection beyond 10 years, they project out 20 and I agree with you that is a stretch.”
Ten years does seem safe, but the change then seen is modest, not a game-changer. I suspect that 10 years from now, there will be a larger percentage of Arabs, but the Jews will be more religious and conservative. Assuming that the politics of both these groups will be the same, the country would become more polarized.
“Your CIA reference states that Israel’s birthrate is lower (2.67) than the West Bank (2.98). ??”
I was pointing out that the rates are not far apart anymore. In 1990, the West Bank birthrate reportedly averaged over 6 per mother. It’s dropped by more than 50% in 20 years. It behooves one to ask why, and whether that trend is going to continue.
Right now Israel is focused on external instability, building fences and hardening themselves. I agree on the increased polarization, it’s coming.
The current stalemate on resolving borders we be broken if Israel waits long enough and change comes from within by an increasing Moslem %.
I remember posting several years ago and there were only 8 Knesset Muslim members and now there are 13.
Birth rates almost always drop with improved health care. Families figure out that when the kids are all living to 18, we don’t need to have more than 3-4.