—Well - has has been predicting gloom and doom since 2009 - eventually, he is going to be correct.—
To be fair, if one predicts something of this magnitude within an accuracy of five years I’ll be impressed. I started predicting it in 2008. I said it could get as bad or worse than the great depression. It sounded nutty.
It doesn’t any more. Many would argue it got worse already (and I believe it has barely started). Real estate has dropped more than it did during World Depression I (WDI). And WDII sees a lot more people who were trying to live off home equity than during WDI. Frankly, countries were a lot more solvent then. This time it is different and it is, fundamentally speaking, much, MUCH worse.
I have little doubt it will end in WWIII just as WDI ended in WWII.
It will be big and nasty. We don't just have a depression looming, the long-term trend on wheat prices is going up.
The cost of growing food is tied to the cost of oil (which is needed for driving tractors to making fertilizers and herbicides).
What happens when the cost of feeding the average Third World resident is more than his economic productivity, and the West can no longer afford to supply food aid?
I read something in 2006 that seems to make sense today. It said, not to be surprised by how long the government can keep this financial charade going. It has tremendous resources to throw at it and it will use them all before it’s over. The end will come but not as soon as we think.