Posted on 07/13/2012 4:26:04 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
TAMPA -- A possible explanation for Democratic Florida Senator Bill Nelson's recent dramatic downward slide in polls is a series of PACs that are spending freely on negative ads against him.
In the space of two months, Nelson, seeking a third Senate term, has gone from 10 points ahead of conservative Republican challenger Connie Mack IV to 10 points behind, at least as measured by Rasmussen. During this time Congressman Mack, son of former Florida U.S. Senator Connie Mack III, has done little or nothing to account for the movement. (Mack faces two opponents in the Aug. 14 primary, but is prohibitively ahead of both in the polls.)
On the basis of the new numbers, the Rasmussen poll has shifted the Florida Senate race from leans Democrat to leans Republican. From April well into June, Rasmussen, as well as Quinnipiac, Pubic Policy and other national polls, consistently showed Nelson ahead of Mack, sometimes by double digits.
[SNIP]
No one knows how well the Mack candidacy will stand up when Nelson starts burning through his $11 million-plus. Mack has his weaknesses as a candidate, and Nelson will go after them. But until now, few thought one of the four seats Republicans need to win in November to take the Senate could be Florida.
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
Bill Nelson slightly ahead in U.S. Senate poll U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds a tight lead over his likely Republican challenger, according to a new Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll.
Forty-seven percent of likely voters prefer Nelson, a Democrat, while 42 percent say they would choose U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV, a Fort Myers Republican and likely GOP nominee. Eleven percent were undecided.
[SNIP]
"Nelson is vulnerable," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company that conducted the poll for the Times, Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13. The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November general election — was conducted July 9-11 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
"Mack has got the name and probably the party behind him, so he could be strong enough to pull it off," Coker said.
Nelson's support traditionally stems from his advocacy of military veterans and the space program, and he's failed to deliver in recent years, Coker said.
But the larger backdrop is an electorate that is dissatisfied with President Barack Obama and with the country's trajectory, the poll reveals.
That sentiment is echoed by Audrey Collette, 77, a retired property manager from Lake Wales, who said she was once excited about Obama but will now vote for a Republican president and senator. She knows little about Mack beyond his name, but thinks he must be better than Nelson.
"I just don't like (Nelson)," she said. "I think he's too much like Barack Obama, and that doesn't excite me."..........................
Only 43 percent of voters statewide support the Affordable Care Act and 52 percent oppose it, with 5 percent undecided. With the exception of southeast Florida, more voters think the law will make the health care system worse.
More voters also favor the state opting out of provisions of the law, something Gov. Rick Scott has already said it would do.
And 50 percent want to see Republicans follow through on their vow to repeal the law, with 43 percent saying it should remain.
In perhaps the most worrisome sign for Obama and Democrats, only 39 percent of voters 65 years or older support the law. Seniors make up about 30 percent of the overall state’s electorate.
“Florida voters didn’t like it a year ago, two years ago, (and) they still don’t like it,” said pollster Brad Coker. “There’s nothing there to that suggests health care is a winner for Obama’s people.”
Obama has played down the law on the campaign trail, saying the country is ready to move past the divisive debate of two years ago, but the poll illustrates the opportunity for presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney to continue calls for the law’s repeal....
The PACs are not damaging Nelson, the unfettered truth is. His chances went bye bye with the last shuttle launch and his support of Obamacare, er The Affordable Healthcare Act. I wouldn’t want to be racist now!
Having lived in Florida, I can say that Senator Nelson was always a bit of a disappointment to me. But with a vote for Obamacare he went from Disappointment to full-blown disgrace. I’m sorry I won’t be able to vote against him this time.
On a positive note though I can vote against McConnell when he comes up for re-election. All RINO’s need to be shown the door back to civilian life.
U.S. Senate 2012
Democrats: 53 (includes 2 independents who caucus with Democrats)
Republican: 47
Nelson has certainly disappointed. I mean WHAT has he done besides finagled a ride on the Shuttle?
He supposedly was a staunch supporter of all things NASA becuase it brought some of the bacon back to Florida. Well we can see how that has gone now that we can only get in to space aboard a f-ing russian rocket.
Nelson is little more than a party hack.
According to various polls (resource realclearpolitics.com) during the past few weeks, Nelson is stuck around 40% while Mack is trending upward. 47% is the highest support I’ve seen for Nelson in a month of polls.
The primary is on August 14. If Mack wins the GOP nomination, as is expected, most of those supporting other GOP candidates in the primary will break for him.
I don’t see how Nelson garners a whole lot more support. He is well known to Floridians and undecideds usually break for the challenger as long as the challenger is a solid choice and Mack, although not as conservative as I’d like, is a solid candidate.
I’d call this one pure toss up at this point. We’ll have to wait until after the primary to get a better picture of the situation.
Thanks for posting the map. It should be noted that even though Indiana has a Republican incumbent, he (lugar) has already been defeated in the primary, making the spot an open seat.
Hmm... This map, and the source are out of date. Snowe of Maine is retiring as well.
Obama, The Outsourcer in Chief
Outsourced out manned spaceflight program to Russia.
Yeah,
Had to use NASA as an outreach program to mooselimbs.
What a f-ing pathetic joke this magic negro is
Yeah,
Had to use NASA as an outreach program to mooselimbs.
What a f-ing pathetic joke this magic negro is
Bill Nelson is a bland bureaucrat whose career owes as much to good press and controversial opposition more than his own strengths. Unfortunately, the likely Republican owes his career largely to his name. I don’t see him having much else going for him.
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