British Spymaster Says Iran Is 2 Years From Nuclear Bomb Capability

New York Times ^ | 13 July 2012 | ALAN COWELL

[moonshot925]

In an unusually public forum, the head of Britain’s foreign intelligence agency, MI6, has forecast that Iran would likely achieve a nuclear weapons capability within two years, a British newspaper reported Friday.

The newspaper, The Daily Telegraph, quoted Sir John Sawers, once the ranking British diplomat on the Iranian nuclear issue and now head of the Secret Intelligence Service, as making the disclosure last week to a gathering of around 100 high-ranking civil servants.

The reported remarks play into a highly contentious debate over Iran’s intentions and capabilities, in which estimates have varied widely.

American intelligence agencies have cited a 2007 assessment stating that Iran, in fact, suspended research on nuclear weapons technology in 2003 and had not decided to take the final steps needed to build a bomb.

But Britain and Israel in particular, have interpreted the same data to mean that a decision has been made to move to a nuclear weapons capability. For its part, Iran has frequently said it has no intention of building such weapons.

[moonshot925]

I think Iran can build a gun-type fission weapon like Little Boy by 2015.

But it will take Iran much longer to build sophisticated fusion weapons like we have.

It will also be difficult foe Iran to miniaturize a nuclear warhead and develop a reentry vehicle for a ballistic missile.

[Steve Van Doorn]

depends on how much help they are getting. It doesn’t sound like they are getting much help. I thought Russia was helping them I guess just in making the buildings?

[New Jersey Realist]

I wish these experts would make up their minds. They said a year ago that Iran was within months of having the bomb.

[moonshot925]

Some Russian scientists are helping Iran with their nuclear program but no assistance building facilities.

The Iranians are building a 40MW heavy-water reactor in Arak in violation United Nations Security Council resolution 1737. It was 65% complete at the end of 2009.

The reactor will be capable of producing 9kg of plutonium annually, enough for 1.5 nuclear weapons per year.

[moonshot925]

Yeah. I remember an article I read in 2006 that said Iran would have the bomb by 2008. LOL.

Always nice to meet a fellow 41 For Freedom boomer sailor. I was on USS FRANCIS SCOTT KEY (SSBN 657) Gold Crew from 1983 to 1988. 5 deterrent patrols. Great boat and lots of good memories.

[darth]

They are Persian muslims; therefore, there WILL be deception.

I think they already have a few nukes. They just want to have more before launching an attack.

If a crude nuke goes off in a cargo container in NYC or DC, who do we blame? How do we know whom to retaliate against?

[New Jersey Realist]

Boomers all the way. I was lead Yeoman on the G.W. CARVER (SSBN656)Blue back in the early 70's as well. Great memories is right. Even though I did 5 patrols on her it seems we spent a lot of time on liberty in Spain, Charleston, Bath, and even Florida and swimming off the coast of Bahama's. It was almost good to get underway on patrol to get away from everything. The SPADEFISH was OK because of the Med stops but life was a lot easier (and quieter!) on the 640 class boomers. I miss the call to "set condition 1SQ for strategic missile launch, spin up all missiles!" a lifetime ago and weren't those 25-word family grams a hoot? Take care.

[SJackson]

Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

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[Eleutheria5]

Can’t anyone give a consistent estimate? Every time I turn around, some f@#$-wit has a new estimate of how long it will take A’jad to go nuclear.