That's not exactly accurate when you're still 4 months out.
Those voters, since they are already REGISTERED to vote, simply have to be motivated enough to go to the polls.
Likely voters are a far more accurate measure when you get close to the actual election. After the conventions, likely voters is the only survey worth listening to. 4 months prior, there are still many people who simply aren't interested yet.
You’re exactly right about the polls which is why I suggested this one not be paid attention to. Only the “likely voters”, close to Nov. are valid. Although the polls just before the Reagan/Carter election were HUGELY wrong.