Still a five point gimmee for the Democrats.
Yep, but the question is this:
Is that what people are honestly reporting when interviewed and when they submitted their census report?
If so, then those are just numbers being used.
The argument then becomes HOW to determine the most valid means of reporting party affiliation. I think Rasmussen uses survey self-report exclusively.
Hi Laz, I looked up Rasmussen’s party affiliation numbers and he does use continuous polling to determine his numbers. He doesn’t appear to use historical or census data in determining his party affiliation weightings.
He has it as approximately:
35% Republican
34% Democrat
30% Independent
I’m not sure what the value of historic and census data is, but I know this pew poll did say that was part of their method for determining party affiliation. The best I can come up with is that they think that people don’t change that much, so you should include what they used to be as part of the balance.