There is a piece coming up in The American Spectator July issue (it is in the print edition but embargoed for the moment on the website) by W. James Antle, III, entitled “Speak Now, Or Forever Hold Your Peace”? with a subtitle of “The gay marriage debate nears its conclusion.” Now, since I can't see the article, I can only guess, but I think the big problem is that there are multiple challenges in the Federal Courts, and based on rulings like Lawrence v. Texas and other cases, this is not likely to be a good result for those who oppose gay marriage.
Governor Romney has said he supports a Federal Constitutional Amendment prohibiting gay marriage. I'd like to read reports about these organizers at the state level directing their efforts in that direction, because that will truly matter.
You are right. This will be decided at the federal level like Lawrence was. I hope Romney will put his money where his mouth is. Otherwise, as you say, it really is over.