[BushMeister]

Rasmussen got the McCain-Obama number right at the end (within a point for Obama, right on for McCain). Let's hope that Rasmussen is using the best methodology, and that the state polls are underestimating Romney's total by a few points.

[henkster]

I still can’t believe that 44% of the American public favor 0bama. Have we really become that stupid?

Don’t answer...it was a rhetorical question.

[SamAdams76]

Between the 4% preferring another candidate and the 5% undecided, it is almost certain that Romney is actually over 50% in this poll.

For example, I would count myself as one of those preferring another candidate but I'm voting for Romney and so will most of the others who are either undecided or preferring another candidate.

[lasereye]

Rasmussen has shown Romney up by a few points pretty consistently for a while now. Unless there’s something wrong with his methods the only way Obama can win is some October surprise revelation about Romney which they may be planning. Maybe his tax returns.

[Leto]

I think Rasmussen is using a turnout model that reflects 2010 turnout.

Most of the other polls are using the 2008 models, dems +7 turnout, some are going larger for the dems. Ras is using a likely voter turnout and others are using either registered voters or adults which tend to skew to the rats.

Meanwhile the generic is +3 pub among likely voters.

[Hugin]

The “You didn’t build that” effect.

[Combat_Liberalism]

We the electorate haven’t seen his VEEP choice yet; we haven’t heard his convention speech yet; we haven’t been hit by his massive media buys. Yet he is probably ahead. I believe the Gipper was behind at this point in 1980. Romney is not the Gipper but given the state of the economy, the restlessness of the electorate, and Obama’s incompetance, Romney stands a better than even chance of victory.