I think this model uses previous history but doesn’t consider the current situation.
The plan of the Baraqqis is to build a majority of dependent voters via 99ers, food stamps, TANF, section 8, HAMP, Obamaphones, “affordable” health care, etc.
A terrible economy and 16% real unemployment aren’t nearly as problematic for Obama as they were for Carter.
Having said that, I believe Romney is going to win.
You’re right, the dependency class has grown since Carter, while the % of Americans paying income taxes has fallen.
And there is also racial/ethnic demographics. The electorate (and nation as a whole) was overwhelmingly white until very recently. Reagan crushed Carter by winning 56% of the white vote; if Romney were to do no better than that now, he’d get routed. Thanks to Republicans stupidly allowing decades of pro-Democrat mass immigration, they face increasingly dim demographic prospects. Texas will probably be a battleground state by 2020 or 2024 thanks to immigration.
Black voters are not going to vote Republican. I think that’s clear now. And it’s clear now that the majority of Hispanic and Asians favor the Democrats. Romney has to hope that enough conservative and right-leaning white voters will show up to vote this year. It’s his only hope.
It’d be great if he could do as well as Reagan did with whites in 1984 (64%) or Nixon in his landslide (67%). I now that’s not likely, as the white electorate has changed too, but I think winning over 60% of the white vote is more doable for a Republican than significantly increasing the party’s share of the non-white vote.