Posted on 08/06/2012 11:31:34 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Another Arab dictatorship looks ready to collapse, and this one might have the biggest impact of them all. The embattled Bashar Assad regime in Syria lost its Prime Minister overnight, as Riyad al-Hijab fled to Jordan and announced his defection:
Syria’s prime minister defected to Jordan on Monday, according to news reports, becoming the most senior official yet to quit the embattled government of President Bashar al-Assad.
A statement read on the al-Jazeera Arabic news channel that was described as coming from Prime Minister Riyad al-Hijab said he had resigned to protest his government’s harsh tactics as it escalates its efforts to crush the country’s 16-month-old rebellion.
“I am announcing that I am defecting from this regime, which is a murderous and terrorist regime,” the statement said. “I join the ranks of this dignified revolution.”
State television from Damascus reported that Assad had "fired" his Prime Minister after less than two months on the job. They didn't make that claim about General Manaf Tlas, who bailed out of Syria a month ago to the day. Apparently, it’s hard to keep good help when bombing their cities.
The appointment of al-Hijab looks curious in retrospect. The Post notes that al-Hijab came from a town that has been in open rebellion for more than a year, Deir el-Zour in the east. Given the strong ties of tribes in Arab culture (a lesson that the US learned the hard way in Iraq), why would Assad have appointed al-Hijab in the first place? That would have been a huge red flag, unless Assad is so desperate for allies that al-Hijab was his only option, or at least the best of a bunch of high-risk choices. If that’s the case, then his regime is closer to collapse than many may have thought.
Is that good news, though, or bad news? Watching Iran’s closest ally and terrorist enabler fall will certainly give us momentary satisfaction, and hopefully might disrupt Hezbollah enough for Lebanon to free itself from their grip. Assad played a vital role in propping up the terrorist organization, in partnership with Iran. However, what replaces Assad will almost certainly be worse (via Jen Rubin):
The day Assad falls, there will be an explosion of anger not just against him and his inner circle, but against all Alawites, his minority sect (about 12 percent of the population), and against those Christians who long ago decided that an alliance with Assad was their least-worst option. The jihadis will take the lead in this butchery — and make every effort to remain leaders thereafter. …
Such concerns have policy implications. To stop Assad’s carnage as soon as possible requires providing material support to Syrian rebels — very carefully and probably covertly. We want our Syrian friends — we do have some — in possession of more money and guns. That will not only help them defend themselves against Assad’s troops now, it also will enhance their strength vis-à-vis other factions later. What’s more, Obama has said many times that we are at war with al-Qaeda. Surely that implies we should not permit al-Qaeda to get the upper hand — not in Syria, not in Iraq, not in Africa, not anywhere.
When the fighting is over, the last thing we should want to see is the rise of yet another strongman. A regime dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood would be no victory for freedom either.
Clifford May has more optimism about the endgame than this excerpt suggests, but he urges intervention by the US in the rebellion in order to guarantee a better outcome. Given what we’ve seen so far from the Arab Spring — the rise of jihadis and the Muslim Brotherhood — we could hardly do worse. However, given our track record on interventions, I’m not sure we’d end up doing much better , either. In Iraq we did, but only at a huge cost in resources and time, and even then our gains may well prove temporary. In the first Afghanistan intervention, we made matters much worse, which is why we’re in Afghanistan now. Without an overwhelming force in place , I’d say that an Egypt outcome after Assad falls is probably our best-case scenario.
Jordan? Why not Iran, their buddy?.............
Another state closer to Global Caliphate. :)
These guys are jumping the Good Ship Assad faster than the Good Ship Obama...
Let’s see if I can guess that one.
Iran is now sending in its own troops to shore up Assad. They are “disguised” as Pilgrims going to some mosque that just happens to be on the way to the fighting zones. Problem is, the Pilgrims in buses are being picked up between the mosque and the battle fronts.
Idiots like Pelosi and the Bamster boxed us in with their attempts to play nice with the Assad regime. Basar will be offered as the sacrificial lamb if the current power structure has any chance of surviving this one. Bottom line is the MB will be in charge of that mess as well.
So now you question why he is going to Jordan? I would hope your comment was meant as sarcasm.
It hasn’t made big news yet for some reason but did you hear that Cass Sustein is leaving his post as Regulatory Zsar and going back to Harvard?
It was.........
Just reading some blog stuff off Aljazeera...Supposedly one of Assad's gunship collapsed a building full of Iranian "pilgrims" being held by FSA. 4 dead, others wounded. Entire building "pancaked." That is what is being said. No idea if true or not. If so? Tensions have definitely been ratcheted up several notches...
Yep, we are way beyond the excrement hitting the air transfer device.
-——he urges intervention by the US in the rebellion in order to guarantee a better outcome-——
His statement is based on the fallacious assumption that US intervention could guarantee any outcome much less a better outcome.
The immediate outcome is preordained by Turkey and the GCC with Qatar and Saudi Arabia in lead roles. Jordan has undoubtedly been heard but is weak and unable to project power. There has been no outcry from Iraq and it can be presumed to be on board as well.
No one knows with certainty what will happen but those noted will not permit the worst case scenario. The purpose of the exercise is to stabilize and go forward. The purpose is not to antagonize and drift backward.
There is no desire to terminate the regional growth with an enemy in the new Syria
Good to see you’re on the ball my FRiend, he’s obviously a coward who knows his sunni co-religionists would cut his throat for being who and where he was.
That’ll teach Assad never give a sunni an even break, if you want to keep your country.
The place is overrun with ‘palestianian’ scum.
Someone identified him as a sunni. If he is, he was a man in the wrong place and at the wrong time if he thinks his co-religionists are winning. He was serving the infidel master. Alawites are infidels.
And if he’s right, woe betide the christian community in Syria.
But I can’t see the Russians allowing the ‘rebel’ scum take the country over.
Spring sprung two days ago, it’s wonderful...
http://www.vision.org/visionmedia/article.aspx?id=58363
excerpt:
Assad is a member of the Alawite faith, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam that has dominated Syrian politics through more than 40 years of his family’s rule in a country that has a Sunni Muslim majority. He is supported by Shi’ite Iran and by Lebanon’s armed Shi’ite Hezbollah movement.
The Sunni-ruled Muslim Gulf Arab states have called for rebels to be armed and Turkey has provided them with a base, angering Damascus and prompting Syrian state television on Sunday to refer to the rebels as a “Turkish-Gulf militia”.
It said the bodies of Turkish and Afghan fighters had been found in Aleppo, without giving details.
Apparently, the Ayatollahs are POd at them for failing to crush the rebellion. They backed a losing horse, and are waiting at the finish line with a 10 guage.
Iran is probably playing both sides against the middle here. Whichever side wins, they will be an ally............
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