[zeestephen]

Any moderately advanced country can arm and build a World War 2 style atomic bomb in five years.

Why can't Iran just hook one to the bottom of a drone and aim it at Tel Aviv?

They could sail through Suez and launch from the bow of a ship.

In fact, they could launch 3 or 4 and annihilate every major Israeli city.

The fact that they don't do something like that makes me believe Iran has no intention to launch the First Strike.

Most likely because they fear a massive Israeli nuclear counter strike.

[JSteff]

Most likely because they fear a massive Israeli nuclear counter strike

That is NOT their mindset. The Iranian mullahs and government lost loads of civilians and troops against Saddam.

They were doing soviet style attack with most of the troops having NO weapons. Forcing the following wave to pick up a gun from those who died in the first waves of attack.

They have no worry of internal or world opinion about what they do or who they loose to accomplish their ends.

That can not be forgotten when thinking of Iran and nuclear war. They really do not care who they loose, or who suffers to achieve their goals.. which are sick and perverted by our thinking.

Not to them. As long as their Imam in the well arises as foretold in prophecy.

[Tallguy]

Any moderately advanced country can arm and build a World War 2 style atomic bomb in five years.

Probably true if you aren't also looking at delivery systems at the same time.

Why can't Iran just hook one to the bottom of a drone and aim it at Tel Aviv?

Fat Man & Little Boy were heavy bombs requiring the most advanced bomber of the day, the B-29, to handle them. Iran will have to develop a weapon small enough to fit onto their ballistic missiles to have an effective weapons system.

They could sail through Suez and launch from the bow of a ship.

The Israelis have been stopping suspicious ships. I think they've thought of this. Plus Iran would be risking a lot of military capital to put a weapon on a cargo vessel that might get stopped or "have an accident" before reaching the target area. A lot of money has been spent on detection systems since 9/11.

In fact, they could launch 3 or 4 and annihilate every major Israeli city.

True enough.

The fact that they don't do something like that makes me believe Iran has no intention to launch the First Strike.

This gets into the murkier area of assessing your enemies intentions. Intentions can change rapidly. Political unrest with Iran could, for instance, change the dynamic. Better to focus on capabilities.

Most likely because they fear a massive Israeli nuclear counter strike.

The Israelis are building a submarine deterence force. So they're covering that base. Their national character is still to pre-empt. They've got the best regional intel, so if Iran gets close there will most likely be a strike.