(Mine is on the back window of my pickup.)
I still think “favorability” is a misleading indicator. I think a lot of people don’t want to admit they don’t like him because of the “R-ism” issue.
Sounds like a formula for a mystery third-party celebrity candidate appearing at the 11th. hour.
(Mine is on the back window of my pickup.)
METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone Aug. 1-5, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,026 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 4 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.
Random sample, not even registered voters let alone likely voters.
Also, the ref to VOTER REGISTRATION becoming important. So, it will be of value for both candidates to have dedicated folks on the ground getting out there to get other folks registered to vote ('cause they can't vote if they're not registered).
Good luck with that on Romney's score. He's planning on winning with TV ads. The 40% of the Republican voting base who are Conservative provide the foot soldiers who do that registration battle.
Obama may have a similar problem as well. If the black ministers aren't supporting his effort to make homosexuality mandatory, they sure aren't going to be running registration campaigns.
This is still a race to the bottom and all the statistical analysis in the world won't tell you what you want to know in time ~ those things only work when interest in campaigns is building and people are getting fired up to campaign for their guy.
Also, the ref to VOTER REGISTRATION becoming important. So, it will be of value for both candidates to have dedicated folks on the ground getting out there to get other folks registered to vote ('cause they can't vote if they're not registered).
Good luck with that on Romney's score. He's planning on winning with TV ads. The 40% of the Republican voting base who are Conservative provide the foot soldiers who do that registration battle.
Obama may have a similar problem as well. If the black ministers aren't supporting his effort to make homosexuality mandatory, they sure aren't going to be running registration campaigns.
This is still a race to the bottom and all the statistical analysis in the world won't tell you what you want to know in time ~ those things only work when interest in campaigns is building and people are getting fired up to campaign for their guy.
I think it is clear Obama is now ahead and is the favorite in the race. I wish it weren’t so, but demographics and an increasing moocher class have made it inevitable.
I do think Romney still has a chance to win a close race. He’ll have to run a stronger campaign than he has to this point, and he is going to have to find a way to convince disenchanted conservatives to give him a shot. A difficult task for sure, but not impossible.
Though I am not a fan, I hope he can pull it off. Undoing four more years of Obama damage will be difficult at best, and potentially impossible.
...And in other news I’ve got a poll showing most agree the sun comes in the morning.
LOTS of leadinfg polls coming out in the last couple of weeks.
The headline polls are all “All Respondents, and NBC is using +16 Dems, NYTimes +9 Dems etc.
THEY ARE ALL BOGUS, but they are meant to DRIVE OPINION, not determine opinion.
Given the trend toward more than 50% of the electorate voting early, and the large number of voters who have already decide who they are voting for, I think these polls are pretty meaningless. Those who haven’t decided yet are such a tiny percentage, that I don’t think the election hinges on them now.
These are the dog days, the period before the convention.