Posted on 08/08/2012 11:58:32 AM PDT by Bulwinkle
.
Since that is surely within the margin-of-error and they almost always oversample Democrats and left-leaning independents, that actually means that Governor Romney is BEATING Mr. Obama in that area. Can you say Nixon vs. McGovern, kids? Sure.
If true, this is going to be a landslide for the GOP. We’ll see how this plays out in other polling data.
Editor’s Note: The D.C. metro phone survey was conducted among 550 adults age 18 and over, between July 26 and July 29, 2012. This included representative samples of 200 people in Virginia (Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford) 250 in Maryland (Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George’s and 100 in D.C.
Northern VA? How did that go in the 2008 elections?
Beat me to it!
“ADULTS” ?????????????? meaningless poll.
Obamugabe
obama won nva by about 20 in 2008
well, if Romeny is doing this well among Adults, he is going to blow out 0bama.
Obama needs to win N. Virgina by 10 points (at least) to be competitive state-wide. He doesn’t have a prayer if N. Virgina is this close.
N. Virgina is basically a Northeast State (due to their dependence on DC), while the rest of the state is a Southern State...they are a pretty good reflection on the country. If Romney can be close in the Northeast, McGovern’s kids may have someone to make them feel better.
Obama carried Virginia. Northern Virginia is the blue part of the commonwealth, so this is good news.
Not entirely meaningless. The fact that a sample of adults has Romney within 2 points of Obama and the takeaway is that Obama is in deep trouble in what is supposed to be a stronghold for him.
Interesting thing about polls. They normalize them to the number of Democrats, Independents and Republicans that they think there should be. So let’s (simplify this and)see how this works. Suppose you poll 10 people and 6 are Democrats for Obama and 4 are Republicans for Romney, you call that as Obama 60% - Romney 40%. Then, some time later, you asked those same 10 people the same question and all answer the same except 2 Obama Democrats now say, “We are sick of Obama, we are now Republicans and we support Romney.” You’d think that would be reported as Romney 60% - Obama 40%, BUT NO!!!! It’s reported as “Obama 60% - Romney 40%” because we had previously established that 60% are Democrats and 40% are Republicans and the new poll has to be updated to reflect that same party affiliation.
So among 550 adults, not voters, not likely voters, Obama is only up by 2%. This is Northern Virginia, the most Fed. Govt. Beltway types in the state.
This is very, very bad for Obama. I had been figuring that Va. was traditionally important for the Republicans, but that Colorado plus New Hampshire could make up for the loss of Virginia. But getting all three of these states could counter even the loss of Ohio for Romney.
More and more, it’s smelling like a blowout landslide. Obama is losing before Romney is formally nominated and before most people are even focused on him.
Obama is driving people away. They have judged him a failure. The dozens of un-American, just creepy, things he’s done over the last four years are “coming back to roost.”
How Left is this area? Are most/all the state reps and congressional reps in these areas blue?
No really a meaningless poll.
The results can be tweeted to discourage Obama supporters. There’s always some use to poll results.
Good news.
But a cautious note on the polsters: “Heart+Mind Strategies’ partners are part of the former leadership of Wirthlin Worldwide founded by Dr. Richard B. Wirthlin – a pioneer in values-based research and Ronald Reagan’s pollster. “
Could be very accurate though. Wirthlin, now deceased, had a terrific repitation.
Not meaningless at all if it’s a truly random sample given that Republicans consistently turn out a larger percentage of voters unless for some reason that is not the case in Northern Virginia.
Rasmussen’s VA poll posted today shows Obama up by 2 (48-46).
I’m truly stunned my fellow Virginians haven’t awakened to the spectre of Obamination II.
Never underestimate the massive un-Adult vote.
I’m truly stunned my fellow Virginians haven’t awakened to the spectre of Obamination II.
***************************************************
Just wondering how many Freepers in Virginia are NOT voting for Romney based upon “principles”. Could be an interesting poll.
You’re basically saying that the “normalization” process in polling can hide tectonic shifts in the real numbers because it’s a backward-looking factor.
I am in Arlington and saw my first Romney side in a front yard a week ago. There is not a single solitary Obama sign in anyone’s yard that I’ve seen.
Being a suffering CT conservative I can tell you that “Northeast States” by and large do not depend more on DC than “red” states. This is a common misconception. NY and CT are the #1 & #2 states ranked by the excess amount of taxes paid into the feds over the amount of benefits received because of the wildly inflated salaries (and cost of living) here. I’ve never understood how so many here in this part of the country keep sending Rats to DC who perpetuate this.
If the MD results are in this result (regional) then Obozo is in real trouble and likely behind in VA.
“adults” LoL. They are desperately rigging polls hoping we won’t know it.
Not even “registered voters” much less “likely voters” but “adults”. Hysterical stuff.
I live in a moderately upscale neighborhood in Hollywood, CA. Just 3 blocks south begin the fabulously wealthy with the gardeners, 3 storey guest houses, BMW’s, 20,000 sq ft homes, poodles and pools. I take a 3 mile walk every day.
1 Obama sign - 3 Obama bumper stickers. Obama comes to this neighborhood to fundraise. In 2008 the Obama yardsigns were countless.
“Rasmussen’s VA poll posted today shows Obama up by 2 (48-46).
I’m truly stunned my fellow Virginians haven’t awakened to the spectre of Obamination II.”
Would you yourself be so “stunned” to discover that many of your fellow Virginians:
1. HAVE “awakened” to the spectre of Obamination II, and...
2. WANT it to happen?
Earlier posters were denigrating the results of the poll of the title article, but I find Rasmussen’s results to be more credible.
Looks like Virginia truly has become “a swing state”.
How much longer before it topples into the blue, Colorado-style?
Spoken just like a liberal. Mocking sneer quotes and all.
If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything. Like a liberal Democrat with an R velcroed to his sleeve.
If you're voting for Romney because you fear The All Powerful And Omnipotent Obama, then say that, but stop tearing down your fellow conservatives who refuse to compromise their most deeply held beliefs.
If so this poll sounds like an outlier to me: all the MD counties except Anne Arundel & Frederick went for Obama in 2008 (Montgomery & PG are so deep blue they're practically ultraviolet) and the situation in DC needs no explanation.
Well, that's the $64K question. Like much of the country, it's undergoing large demographic changes, especially in the occupied north. Much of Fairfax County doesn't even look American anymore.
So, while much of the rest of the Old Dominion is still conservative, there are indeed growing factions who want the rest of us to join them in a kneeling position before the big-government leviathon.
You missed the point.
Read your profile. If I were to complete a profile, it would match yours, except for the state.
That Rasmussen corresponds to what Romney’s camp recently said about Virginia as well.
Bay Buchanan said they believe Obama is up by a couple of points, but that he was up by 8 points just a few months ago and that the race there continues to trend in Romney’s favor.
Right.
However, there is a strong strain of social conservativism there as well. It's not like Boston.
I think Obama's gay marriage stance was the final nail/coffin.
I'm glad to hear that you meant the exact opposite of what I read in your comment. Perhaps an added word or two would have made it more clear.
Thanks.
I have seen Romney bumper stickers in Fairfax city.
That adds up to 94%. What about the other 6%? Are they undecided, or are they voting 3rd party? If most are undecided, then this is a definite advantage for Romney.
BTTT
“Being a suffering CT conservative I can tell you that “Northeast States” by and large do not depend more on DC than “red” states.”
I guess you can read my words that way, but it wasn’t intended like that. My point was that N. Virgina votes leftist because the money comes from DC...it was to distinguish them from the rest of the state - not to say that the Northeast votes the way they do for the federal money. The Northeast votes the way that they do because of their union legacy - hopefully they get past that.
As far as fewest dollars coming back from DC, as a Tea Party person, I would be PROUD to be at the top of that list - but that’s just me. In any case, it’s based on mainly on military bases, population density (less gets you more money, in order to cover the highways), and agriculture. It also doesn’t help to be a wealthy state, as you have a lower proportion of moochers.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.