That's correct. In 2008 Obama was +8 over McCain. In 2010, with the Tea Party energized Dem advantaged dropped to about +0. What will it be this year? I'm thinking it will look more like 2010 than 2008. If I'm right then Romney will win.
The national polling isn’t as critical as the battleground state polling. Romney needs to win say Ohio and Florida or else he’ll lose in the EC.