Rasmussen states that historically, the best indicator of an incumbent’s share of the vote is the approval rating of the president.
In every poll, I have seen Obama’s approval rating at around 42-44%. He will not win if those numbers stay the same.
Unless Romney's numbers are in the 30s. Think about it 75% of this forum either has little enthusiasm for or is openly hostile to Romney. Extrapolate that out over the conservative landscape. Also, Obama's attacks are highly negative, easily rebutted but brilliant and effective. They distract from every effort of Romney to talk the economy, and they create an uneraseable negative image of Romney as a cad. I've said before that Obama's people are following old time Chicago politics, but using Marshall McLuhan's media theories of the medium being far more important than the message. Whatever the objective reality, Obama's ads and the screeds of Axelrod and Reid leave an imprint on the voter. And no one ever went broke betting against the intelligence of the American voter. Right now,IMO it's Rasmussen's poll that's the outlier, and I don't see the trend changing.
This is why Obama is pushing a third party run.
Obama just needs a few useful idiots to vote for a libertarian or conservative party and siphon off a couple hundred thousand votes.