Rasmussen Iowa President: Romney 46%, Obama 44%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 08/10/2012 | Scott Rasmussen

[iowamark]

The presidential race in the battleground state of Iowa remains a near tie.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds Mitt Romney with 46% support to President Obama’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided...

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on August 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC...

Rasmussen subscribers can read the rest of this article.

[HamiltonJay]

I’m sorry but the basic supposition that you can reside over the WORST ECONOMY IN MODERN US HISTORY and get re-elected is nonsense.

Obama, will be the ONLY president in the modern age to have fewer people employed at the end of his term than when he took office, that’s a pure and simple fact. 1 in 2 college grads can’t find a job. Real unemployment is in the teens.

There will alwas be kool aid drinkers and party loyalists who will pull the lever no matter what, but the idea that those equate to 50%+1 vote of the country is nonsensical.

Polls limited to swing states show Obama down 10 already. Others show thatn 20% of DEMOCRATS plan to vote for Romney... Obama is going to not only lose this election, he’s going to lose it big.

Now fight like its a 50-50 race, but don’t buy into the nonsense folks... 3.6% +1 vote is all that needs to change its mind for Obama to lose the popular vote. Now the EC is a bit more of an issue, but given the EC overweighs sparsely populated states, its impossible for Obama to win the EC and lose the Popular vote because his popular vote support is from large states, not sparcely populated ones.

3.6%+1 vote.. anyone thinking he won’t lose that much support between 08 and 12 isn’t thinking clearly at all.

[dnandell]

The Iowa State Fair is currently underway. The local NBC affiliate has a “Cast Your Kernel,” non-scientific poll going on. After two days of the fair, Romney is ahead 60%/40%.

[treetopsandroofs]

Yes, hard to believe these propagandists can go home and lie to their families and SLEEP at night, but once they sold their souls simply to keep their presumably high-paying jobs, they will say and do anything.

God help us all.

And forgive my useful moron hateful acquaintances who do nothing but repeat the latest anti-Mitt lies all day simply because they have nothing good to say about their hero the Fraud, who wants nothing less than to “fundamentally transform America” into a dumb dirtheap.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

NV is in no way, shape or form a lost cause. Obama and his wife are here every other week. It is way too early to tell yet, but I’d put Obama’s chances here at under 50%. It will be close here, but it’s going to be a toss up down to the wire.

[Road Warrior ‘04]

Foxnews over sampled democrats by 9-12%. At least that’s what I thought I heard from Bret Baier on last night’s show.

[MrChips]

I like your optimism. And I, too, think Mitt will win Michigan . . . in the wake of the Delphi scandal and the souring of the GM bailout. But, I worry about Ohio. Obama has spent and will continue to spend a lot of money there. So will ROmney, of course. Still, I worry.

[unixfox]

With all of your predications you left one out.

The idiocy of those that still believe that Zer0 is their best hope for change.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

Sides? Both, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are leftists! The U.S. is ruined, with, either, Barack Obama, or Mitt Romney as POTUS!

[vekzen]

Appreciate your optimism.

Guess Obama’s drive-by gangster campaign isn’t flying too well in Iowa.

[so_real]

Folks need to see the bigger picture that shows Obama doing everything in his power to throw this election to Romney using an unprecedented hard turn to the left in an election year as a tool. Obama wants to escape the WhiteHouse without impeachment papers or handcuffs, while iconifying himself as minority leadership, *and* handing his liberal agenda for safe keeping and nurturing to a man who is a kindred spirit in everything but political party.

And even with this hard leftist/socialist turn, Romney is such a poor candidate that he can't pick up the votes Obama is aiming his way. By poll numbers Romney is 2% better than the worst pres__ent in the history of the United States. And the GOP needs to figure out now, before the convention, that 2% isn't a big enough margin for people to change their tune. It is too much risk for zero gain.

[wolfman23601]

Iowa is one of the whitest states in the country. Obama should not be able to carry it this time.

[tcrlaf]

“IA, WI and IN will all flip easily....”

Was being told about an Internal Congress candidate poll last night, at a phone bank, that shows Romney winning Indiana by as much as 20+, right now.

Dems may hold only ONE congress seat in Indiana when this is done, and as few as ten seats in the State Senate, it could even be worse in the House, with R’s having a real chance to win even in Northwest Indiana..

If true, that’s REALLY saying something about what is coming.

[devolve]

-

I have not checked the internals on the FOX Poll or the Rasmussen Poll

I do see Rasmussen polled LIKELY VOTERS :
46%-Romney
44%-Obama
6%-Undecided (most will go for Challenger)
5%-Other Candidate (disregard)

I would imagine FOX polled REGISTERED VOTERS (but I could be wrong)

FOX Poll:
49%-Obama
40%-Romney

In 2004 when the LA Times oversampled democrats by 16% I added half (8%) to GW Bush and deducted half (8%) from Kerry - My quick and dirty adjustment worked out pretty well -

FOX Poll (readjusted by 4.5% +&-) :
49%-Obama = 44.5%
40%-Romney = 44.5%

now the FOX poll is within the 3% margin of error most pollsters admit too

Recall that on voting day the democrats screamed that Kerry was ahead in Exit Polls

That was horseshirt - as people lie - especially the media

-

I would imagine most polls are done when actual working people (non-minority likely voters) (taxpaying honkies) are at work or actually out doing something besides watching a 60” HDTV with a case of cold beer

Another thing to consider is that leftie pollsters call urban residents (huge minority and democrat ghettos - for example NYC is 4 to 1 democrat to Republican registration) - but on voting day NYC does not vote 4 to 1 democrat for President (yes it may be 2 to 1 but not 4 to 1)

No special tricks or methods here - But if you do not correct for internals of oversampling of democrats - and other bullshirt - such as leftie pollsters now adding numbers for democrats with cellphones (which cannot be called by pollsters) - you are going to get the numbers and results that Obama wants to see in media “push-polls”

Keep in mind that I have no idea what I am doing - I am just going by my previous experience in 2000 and in 2004

Zogby’s polls? His brother works for CAIR - enough said on Zogby

Do not ever forget that the media bought the Obama/HLS bs of “domestic terrorism” for the recent Sikh shootings

But the insane Fort Hood massacre by a crazy Muslim (who was on Obama’s “Transition Team”) was only “Workplace Violent Act”

-

[RedMDer]

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[HamiltonJay]

Again, to you and those who keep pulling up this nugget, tell me, who do you know who is arguing this point who isn’t a died in the wool democratic voter?

How many swing voters are you hearing this nonsense from? I am telling you that where I am, I am having a hard tiem finding even a single swing voter I know, even those who I know voted for him last time that have any intent on voting for him again. In fact I am finding life long democrats who are telling me they will never vote for hime.

There is no doubt the party loyal will vote for him no matter what, but the idea that 3.6% of the voting public will not change their minds since last election is silly on its face.

[conservativebabe]

I think it’s actually much higher than that in reality.

[HamiltonJay]

I hadn’t seen those figured, but its been obvious that Indiana isn’t even going to be close.

IN, IA, OH and WI are certain to go for Romney as far as I can tell, Obama has spit in the face of the blue dogs for 4 years, and like it or not, you can’t win those states without the blue dog vote, they turn on you you are done, (MI and PA as well but they have large cities that counter the effect) however I do believe that PA and MI will go red, if Obama holds them it will only be by the SLIMMEST of margins and he will have to dump a TON of money into them.

I fully expect what you are seeing in IN, to happen in OH, IA and to a lesser extent WI.. not to the extreme of IN, but they will follow the same general pattern.

Obama is done in the rust belt, IL and MN are the only places he will find quarter.. I truly expect PA and MI to flip as well.

[VA40]

Methodology The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers August 5-7, 2012, among a random national base sample of 930 registered voters, including additional interviews (an oversample) of 115 randomly selected Hispanics. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state. The additional interviews of Hispanic respondents were done to allow analysis of the subgroup, and are weighted so Hispanics are not over-represented in the overall national sample. The total 170 of Hispanics is made up of 55 interviews done as part of the base national sample and 115 oversample interviews from a list of Hispanic voters developed from previously conducted national random digit dial (RDD) surveys. Oversample interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. LV = likely voters Results from Fox News polls before February 2011 were conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp.

Does anyone understand why they oversampled Hispanics? Also, when they flashed this on the TV this morning I'm certain it said +/- 8%. This is one screwed up poll if you ask me.

[plain talk]

I hope you are right. The wild card involves the impact of at least two factors
- lies/ propaganda - many voters don’t operate in a rational analysis zone. They can be fooled and bought
- cheating - illegals, dead vote and tricks

[uncbob]

Hope you are right
I notice you were here since 99
Did you make predictions in 2000-2004-2006-2008-2010 and if so what is your batting average