I admit up front that the proof will be in the pudding but I strongly predict that Sept. 5 - the first day after the RNC Convention and Romney's acceptance speech - we will see an ad equivalent of shock-and-awe that will be massive, targeted and continuous and is based on key lines from Romney's acceptance speech.
These ads will include all the slow curve balls that we have seen emanating from the Obama presidency - "too big to fail" "at some point you've made enough" "never let a crisis go to waste" "the private sector is doing just fine" "you didn't build that, somebody else did" etc. - with the strategic knowledge that O and Co. and the compliant media will howl and effectively give life to each ad, not to mention free advertizing.
These outrageous polls that produce lop-sided results by tipping the scale heavy with Democrats have NOT had a major effect while the more credible ones - Gallup and especially Rasmussen - show Romney holding his own and gaining. While the vile inventiveness of the leftist media and pols will surely never cease, O and Co. will not be able to simply brush aside a barrage of ads that directly quote - via video clips - Obama, Carney, Chu, Napolitano, Holder, Biden, etc. That's the key. You almost don't need to have anyone do a voice over except to posit a question at the beginning and then load up the ad with either a long direct quote, a collection of short clips, or a series of this-was-then clips matched with this-is-now clips.
Bottom line is while the Romney campaign is indeed advertizing and defending themselves, they are doing a mid-level of intensity while O and Co. are shooting their smaller wad of cash and having almost no result. That tends to happen when most people know somebody in their own circle of family and friends has been hit hard by the economy. But come September 5th the real barrage begins and when the base sees Romney sticking it to O and Co. both continuously and effectively then the donations will just keep flowing in and it will become a self-perpetuating financial model for sixty-five days that will keep O and Co. mostly on the defensive.
And since I didn't say so above, I will also add that John Nolte is simply wrong in stating Romney has been defined and thus will not be able to define himself. A nominating convention automatically gives a candidate - particularly a challenger - the official stamp of legitimacy and thus more moral authority when making the case for their candidacy and defining their vision.
Good post. FYI
RCP has Gallup and Rasmussem with leads for Romney and horrible approval ratings for Obama. The newest polls posted by Fox and CNN(?) have huge leads for Obama and big approval leads(over 50%).. When you look into the internals, one poll doesn’t shows the D/R breakdown. The other(Fox) shows a Plus 9 for the Dems. Low and behold the Fox poll has Obama up by 9. Fox’ prior poll was D+5 so they increased the D ratio. These and many others are doing this to discourage Romney voters and their willingness to vote. They can make what ever poll they want. They could do the interviews in DNC HQ. and still not get 50&.
People hate Obama except for the 23% who will not change regardless. He is barely getting 20-25% of the possible voters. No way he gets 50%. People are not willing to tell pollsters what they really think. Romney needs to “stick the landing” as you describe.