I think Romney is going to win VA based on the fact that the GOP has done very well in NoVa since 2008. In Fact, a true conservative almost won the election for the 11th district in 2010. In 2009, Bob McDonnell won Fairfax Co. I am not saying Romeny will win Fairfax, but I believe he will hold his own. I do believe that Romney will win Loudon Co.
You have to keep in mind something about VA. In 2008 the GOP stayed home. Had McCain gotten the votes Bush got in 2004, McCain would have won VA.
I also believe that Romney will win FL.
LS can comment on OH. I think Ryan helps with the working class Catholics in OH.
I do know this: poll after poll shows an unknown Josh Mandel within four of Sherrod Brown for U.S. Senate. I think that tells us something of where the presidential race is, and it ain't pretty for Obama.