Skip to comments.Pre-VP Pick Analysis by Hugh Hewitt
Posted on 08/11/2012 9:49:59 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler
If this analysis is anything like Hugh's constitutional knowledge, follow this analysis closely. That means Hugh is on to something. On the other hand, if this analysis is anything like Hugh's sports picks, stop reading this post immediately.
Hugh realizes that some of the polls out there are basically meaningless, as they are using only registered voters with a big overwhelming sample of Democrats. That just doesn't meet the reality of the political landscape today. So, those polls following that model cannot be anywhere close to accurate.
Hugh knows that Governor Romney has his own internal polls that clearly give the candidate a good reading on how his campaign is doing. So, Hugh is using his calculations based on Romney's internal polls.
Hugh says there are five possible situations that the internal polling of Romney will show. That Romney is way ahead, that he has a slight lead, that the race is essentially tied, that he is closely behind, or that Romney is way behind. Each situation, according to Hugh, will determine a different VP choice by Romney.
Hugh is predicting right now that:
1. If Romney has a big lead, he will choose Tim Pawlenty the former governor of Minnesota.
2. If Romney has a small lead he will choose Rob Portman, the US senator from Ohio.
3. If Romney's internal polls show the race is tied it will be Paul Ryan, congressman from Wisconsin.
4. If Mitt Romney is behind by a little, he will choose Marco Rubio, US Senator from Florida.
5. And if the polls are showing Romney is way behind and needs a "Hail Mary" pick, it will be Chris Christie, Governor from New Jersey.
(Excerpt) Read more at talesfromatribble.com ...
Here is Hugh's analysis as recorded by a blogger.
I listen to his show on the drive. Common sense guy and I like his approach to the political sideshow...he cuts though the BS. I think the latest round of negative ads is spewing desperation. I don’t think this is a tie race...I think the polls might show it that way, but there really is a “I don’t want to say I’m voting against the black guy” factor for fear of being thought racist. It will change in the booth, though. I think we’ll see the indies and centrists coming around.
Can’t wait to see Ryan/Biden debate. Heh heh heh...now THAT’S entertainment.
Here's my opinion.
Ryan is at least tied for the LEAST safe choice. He is VERY controversial and is hated by the media. Romney only chooses Ryan if internal polls show him WAY ahead and he is not the least bit concerned about the media or independents or any of that manipulation crap put out by democrats.
Romney has a huge lead and chose to solidify the base by picking Ryan.
I don’t think Hugh has much of a record on picking winners and losers.
We could be down by 50 points, but there is Hugh out there jumping, smiling, doing the splits, shaking his little pink pom-poms anyway.
Hugh has a tin ear for Politics and Football. Having said that, I do enjoy his guests.
His internals likely showed his huge lead may have slipped a little in recent days by squemish independents scared by the negative junk, but he didn’t go with someone to nail down Florida or Ohio or some minority vote - he took the bold step of focussing the issues - Economy, Budget and the role of the Federal Government. Clear choice. Solidified the base NATIONALLY - not just a region or group.
This is why the choice of Ryan was pure genius: this was a VP choice focusing on NATIONAL priorities and our future as a country.