Stage Officially Set for Competitive Senate Contests in Wisconsin, Florida, Connecticut

Rothenberg Political Report ^ | 8/15/12 | Jessica Taylor

[randita]

Stage Officially Set for Competitive Senate Contests in Wisconsin, Florida, Connecticut

Jessica Taylor August 15, 2012 · 1:19 AM EDT

In the Wisconsin Senate race, it’s officially a Tommy vs. Tammy showdown.

A topsy-turvy GOP primary came to a close on Tuesday, with former governor Tommy Thompson clinching what once seemed like an unlikely comeback bid more than a decade after he left office. Thompson took 34 percent in the four-way race, with wealthy hedge fund manager Eric Hovde at 31 percent, former Rep. Mark Neumann at 23 percent and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald with 12 percent.

Thompson will face Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D), unopposed in her primary, in a highly competitive race to succeed retiring Sen. Herb Kohl (D) that has far-reaching implications on the balance of power in the Senate. We continue to rate this race as a Pure Toss-Up.

Thompson faced fire from all sides in the slow moving primary, overshadowed for much of the year by the gubernatorial and legislative recalls. The Club for Growth got in early for Neumann, whose former aides have ties to the Club, and took particular aim at the former Health and Human Services Secretary for his positions on health care reform. Hovde’s late entrance into the race threw a wrench into the race. He spent nearly $5 million of his own money, and had the early airwaves to himself, spending heavily to boost his name ID. But the Club soon began to target Hovde too, and the race’s closing weeks, all the top three candidates were engaged in a circular firing squad.

Many GOP operatives believed Neumann had late momentum, but Thompson’s longtime goodwill in the state and base ultimately likely proved to be too much to overcome in a race that only required a plurality instead of a majority.

Most Republicans in the state regarded Thompson as the strongest challenger to Baldwin anyway, and some privately had concerns that either Hovde or Neumann couldn’t match up. And while the former governor once had crossover appeal to independents and Democrats, the 70 year-old Thompson now faces a much polarized electorate than in the nineties. The NRSC has reserved $5 million of ad time in Wisconsin, while the DSCC has not yet made a reservation. Republicans believe they can paint Baldwin as too out of touch with the state and were enthused by Gov. Scott Walker’s successful rebuff of the June recall, but this race remains very close and should be an evenly matched race.

In Connecticut, Rep. Chris Murphy secured the Democratic nomination with his 68 percent to 32 percent victory over Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz. Murphy will face 2010 Senate nominee Linda McMahon in the general election after the former wrestling executive easily defeated former Rep. Chris Shays, 73 percent to 27 percent, in the GOP primary.

Democrats can’t take the fall race for granted but Republicans have a steep challenge against Murphy. McMahon will need to run up a large margin in the 5th Congressional District, the most Republican of the districts in Connecticut, but that will be difficult since Murphy has represented that area since he was elected to Congress in 2006. We continue to rate the race as Democrat Favored.

In Florida, Rep. Connie Mack cruised to the GOP nomination with 59 percent of the vote over former Rep. Dave Weldon (20 percent) and veteran Mike McCalister (14 percent). Sen. Bill Nelson also turned back nominal primary opposition, but he’ll have much more to worry from with Mack in November.

While GOP strategists were initially down on Mack’s candidacy, citing his weak fundraising and stumbling campaign, in recent weeks there’s been an uptick of confidence for the scion of one of the state’s legendary political families. Mack may not match Nelson in the bank, but with outside groups and such a focus on the state in the presidential race, this one is becoming more competitive, and just last week we moved the race into the Toss Up/Tilt Democrat category.

Nathan L. Gonzales contributed to this report. 

[randita]

 

8/16/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold OR Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
AZ*	Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#)		HOLD
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
MO	Todd Akin	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
WI*	Tommy Thompson		GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester*	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Connie Mack	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MI	Pete Hoekstra	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
HI*	Linda Lingle	Mazie Hirono	GAIN
CT*	Linda McMahon	Chris Murphy	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
WA	Michael Baumgartner	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner

 

[randita]

Ping

[RC one]

We won’t pick up Connecticut and we’ll lose Maine for a net loss of 1 seat but we’ll almost certainly pick up Wisconsin, Montana, Nebraska, and Virginia. We are VERY competitive in Florida and Ohio. We are competitive in ND IIRC and we should hold onto Indiana. After this election, we will most likely control the senate with or without Paul Ryan. IMHO.

[RC one]

and we’ll probably pick up Missouri judging by recent poll numbers too.

[kneehurts]

I hope McMahon beats Chrissy Murphy. Murphy is a complete and total communist. I will be working hard to defeat him and the peoples republic of connecticut public employee unions bank rolling him. He is a disgrace.

[kneehurts]

I hope McMahon beats Chrissy Murphy. Murphy is a complete and total communist. I will be working hard to defeat him and the peoples republic of connecticut public employee unions bank rolling him. He is a disgrace.

[kneehurts]

I hope McMahon beats Chrissy Murphy. Murphy is a complete and total communist. I will be working hard to defeat him and the peoples republic of connecticut public employee unions bank rolling him. He is a disgrace.

[campaignPete R-CT]

k-hurt, glad somebody excited for LindaM. get us excited, cuz we gotta flush Andrew in 5th.

[Impy]

I don’t think WI or CT will end up very close. It’s hard to imagine the dyke or Linda McMahon winning.

Linda has a better chance than Raese in WV though, he’s way too high on your list. The other Linda (Lingle) should definelty be above him. Every poll I’ve seen has him being gobsmacked Bob Byrd style by Manchin.

[randita]

RE WV, I think the hope is that Romney carries the state by 20 or more and may carry Raese with him. But Manchin has such strong name recognition, most will split the ticket and vote for him.

On your recommendation, I’ll move him down a slot or two on my list.

[NeoCaveman]

Nice chart.

I wonder if the Maine Republican can’t make a race of it, in a three way race, if the Democrat also competes to take some votes from King.

[randita]

King is very well known and liked, so I don’t think he’ll lose even in a three way race.

[campaignPete R-CT]

the 2 Lindas have a shot. Raese no shot. SO imp is correct, move them up.

[Impy]

That’s the thing.

The Republican Governor won a multi-candidate race with under 40%.

I think our guy can get that 35 to 40% he would need. But we’d need the rat to get at least 20-25% from King. She is a nobody with no money whom the party is ignoring cause they know they have King if they need his vote. Problem. Some GOP millionaire need to give the DEMOCRAT a sizable donation.

[Impy]

Well I sure hope that’s what happens I would love to be dead wrong here.

That race ending up as a 10 point win for Manchin after Raese had been leading in the polls not too long before the vote was one on the biggest disappointments 2 years ago.

He had no business running again. It’s not like anyone was gonna do it instead but still I’d take a fresh nobody over a proven failure in this case.

I hope at least Maloney can win the Gubernatorial rematch. It’s time for some down ballot success in WV. Maybe he or Rep McKinley can win a Senate race down the line since
the unfortunately pro-choice Capito is reluctant to risk her current job.

[BillyBoy]

Are there freepers who actually think Raese has a chance in West Virgina? Geesh, this is as delusional as the “we’re gonna win the Jewish vote this year
even though even Ronald Reagan couldn’t get 1/3rd of it when he took 49 states” They should have recruited Hiram Lewis after “electable” John Raese turned
out to be anything but. This guy needs to take the hint and give it a rest, it’s like he enjoys wasting money on losing campaigns or something.

“The very definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”

1st Senate Race
Jay Rockefeller (Democrat) 51.8%
John Raese (Republican) 47.7%

2nd Senate Race
Robert C. Byrd (Democrat) 64.4%
John Raese (Republican) 33.7%

3rd Senate Race
Joe Manchin (Democrat) 53.47%
John Raese (Republican) 43.40%

4th Senate Race
Joe Manchin (Democrat) TBA
John Raese (Republican) TBA

Freepers, there are a zillion competitive Senate races this year. Focus on THEM. West Virginia’s not one of them. (and neither is CT, Linda McMahon is a joke)

[Impy]

It sounds like faint hope of coatails if Romney can run up to around 60% which I think he will.

But WV can ticket split with the worst of them, and the (scant, nothing since spring that I can find) polling is not just bad it’s horrible. As in “I can’t believe he lead in the polls as late as October 23rd of 2 years ago”.

The very final batch of polls 2 years ago had Manchin winning, but by half the margin he ended up getting. I don’t know if Raese tanked at the end or if the polling was flawed or what.

Horrible. Abortion supporter though she is I think Capito would have beat him 2 years ago and a non-Raese competent conservative would have had a 50% chance. He seems to have weathered the storm and conned his way back into the good graces of the voters.

I hope Rockerfeller retires in 2014.

Or not cause he’s a friggin marxist who made Bob Byrd look like Harry F. Byrd and he needs to stop getting a pass. He’s gotten the same guy twice in a row himself, Jay Wolfe former state Senator (1 term in the 80’s at least he won a race) who lost to Byrd in 1988. And there was just a half point difference in the results from 2002 to 2008.

So that’s 6 Senate races for Wolfe and Raese. I guess they are our Shadow Senators for West Virginia. We need a bench in that state, badly. Our one statewide winner since Underwood a retread from the 50’s won in 1996 has been Sec of State Betty Ireland and she quit politics after 1 term. Capito the biggest star on our side is not pro-life in a state where half the rats are and she’s Arch Moore’s daughter which is the only reason she won in the first place. New blood anyone? This is the last bastion of the good ole boy right here.