India and Russia going to sign biggest-ever defence deal worth $ 35 billion

NEW DELHI: India's quest for a futuristic stealth fifth-generation fighter, which will see the country spend around $35 billion over the next 20 years in its biggest-ever defence project, has zoomed into the decisive phase now.

India and Russia are getting all set to ink the full and final design or R&D phase contract for the 5th Gen fighter by this year-end or early-2013, say sources. It will again underline India's firm rejection of the US offer of its Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) or the F-35 'Lightning-II'.

Ahead of the R&D contract, under which India wants to induct over 200 stealth fighters from 2022 onwards, a senior team of Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) engineers and IAF experts is going to Russia within a fortnight to ensure that the "full documentation and other work" of the earlier preliminary design contract (PDC) has been completed.

During his visit to Moscow last week, IAF chief Air Chief Marshal N A K Browne reviewed the performance of the 5th Gen fighter, called Sukhoi T-50.

While the Indian fighter will primarily be based on the T-50, it will be tweaked to IAF requirements.

India had inked the $295 million PDC with Russia in December, 2010. The R&D contract on the anvil is pegged at $11 billion, with India and Russia chipping in with $5.5 billion each.

"The three Russian T-50 prototypes have flown around 180 sorties till now. HAL's Ozar facility at Nashik will get three prototypes in 2014, 2017 and 2019...they will be flown by IAF test pilots," said a source.

"Russia has already given the draft R&D contract to us. It will include the cost of designing, infrastructure build-up at Ozar, prototype development and flight testing. So, India will have scientists and test pilots based both in Russia and Ozar during the R&D phase up to 2019. HAL will subsequently begin manufacturing the fighters," he added.

Interestingly, after first specifying the requirement for at least 166 single-seat and 48 twin-seat of these 5th Gen fighters, India is veering around to the view that it will go in for only single-cockpit jets now.

"Both F-35 and T-50 are single-seaters. A second cockpit will compromise the stealth capabilities by at least 15% apart from adding to the weight and reducing fuel capacity. Moreover, R&D costs could go up by another $2 billion for the twin-seater," he said.

As a critical interim measure and confronted with a declining number of fighter squadrons, IAF also wants the almost $20 billion MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) project to acquire 126 French Rafale fighters to be sealed within this fiscal.

Pakistan was formed at the beginning of independence as a homeland for India's Muslims and was defined in its constitution as an Islamic state. India's progress since independence is a reproach to Pakistan's sense of honor and to the credibility of its corrupt and feckless governing elite.

The Pakistani Army views itself as the essential guarantor of the continuity of Pakistani nation, which it sees as beleaguered by external and internal adversaries. Since the Zia era, the Pakistani Army and state have taken a decidedly Islamist turn.

The Pakistani Army has been an unreliable partner for the US, with numerous incidents in which Pakistani troops have fired on US troops in Afghanistan. Moreover, elements of the ISI and the Pakistani Army are deeply involved in the drug trade that supports the Taliban, which Pakistan created and whose ruling council in Quetta is under Pakistan's supervision.

Being Islamist or mostly under the sway of Islamists, many Pakistanis hate the West in general and the US in particular. Yet the near enemy -- India -- hardly escapes Islamist wrath.

Being within range of Pakistan's nuclear missiles and vulnerable to Islamic terror attacks, India cannot but regard Pakistan as a menace. I doubt that India's defense planners would prefer the Pakistani Army to collapse and leave Islamists to run the country, with an arsenal of nuclear missiles at the ready.

To be specific as to what I mean by US radar spoofing in the Bin Laden raid, I surmise that technologies were used that were similar to what the Israelis used in a 2007 strike on Syria's nuclear reactor. As reported at the time by Aviation Week's Ares blog:

"U.S. aerospace industry and retired military officials indicated today that a technology like the U.S.-developed “Suter” airborne network attack system developed by BAE Systems and integrated into U.S. unmanned aircraft by L-3 Communications was used by the Israelis. The system has been used or at least tested operationally in Iraq and Afghanistan over the last year.

"The technology allows users to invade communications networks, see what enemy sensors see and even take over as systems administrator so sensors can be manipulated into positions so that approaching aircraft can’t be seen, they say. The process involves locating enemy emitters with great precision and then directing data streams into them that can include false targets and misleading messages algorithms that allow a number of activities including control."

The specifics of the Bin Laden raid are rapidly becoming known, so we will soon know if my surmise is correct.

In any event, I suspect that the US has covertly arrived at terms for withdrawal that bar a return of Al Queda to Afghanistan and any future use of its territory for transnational terrorism. Beyond that, US support for the Northern Alliance militias and ethnic groups will operate as way to limit any Taliban resurgence.

By all means, India should develop an indigenous arms industry. The best way to do that is through competitive solicitations by India's military for what it needs and that Indian industry can reliably provide.

At present, much of what India buys from indigenous sources is over-priced, obsolete, or defective. Procurement officials are too often slow, incompetent, and corrupt. And India's national security strategy is unclear, making for a lack of coherence in procurement.

With a pressing need for new high end weapons and equipment, India would be well-served to get those weapons on the best terms possible without extreme demands for technology sharing and domestic production. Otherwise, India will expand and compound the problems of its dysfunctional procurement system and arms industry.

Again, to sum up, India needs weapons and equipment from foreign vendors in order to boost her military capabilities, and she needs reform in procurement before she can hope to have a potent indigenous arms industry.

And, sorry about having to say this, but India does not have the fundamental strengths needed to become a superpower. She will have to work hard just to become and remain an effective and respected regional power in the coming decades.

The F-35 will work out, just as other troubled US aircraft programs were made to work out. Anticipated F-35 range limitations can and will be addressed through measures like increased fuel capacity, more fuel efficient engines, higher energy fuels, and fuel management strategies. Supposedly, in testing, F-35 fuel burn is running below expectations.

I may be mistaken, but I seem to recall that India recently cancelled her fourth carrier due to budget considerations.

The US has an unmanned X-47B combat aircraft technology demonstrator built and flying, with the first carrier launches and recoveries planned for 2013 and autonomous aerial refueling in 2014. If testing goes well, limited US deployment of an unmanned naval combat aircraft is seen as possible as early as 2018.

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