Skip to comments.Can Mitt seize Ohio opportunity?
Posted on 08/19/2012 10:54:23 AM PDT by NCjim
Seventy-plus men walked out of the ground, overalls and hardhats covered in coal dust, and onto the risers of a stage built for a Mitt Romney speech.
To onlookers, mostly press and staffers, the image was stunning.
To the 2,600 family members gathered in the gravel parking lot or under tents, eating hot dogs and drinking pop, it was a moment of immense pride.
This is what we do, said Tim Wiles: We make things. We provide energy for the state, food for our families, and businesses are sustained around the county because they make money from us.
The 54-year-old miner added, after listening to Romney: This election is his and Paul Ryans for the taking. They need to be bold and remind people of what we stand for, that we are the backbone of this country.
America still is that competitive frontier, said Josh Kinney, 32, standing beside him.
Energy issues have played a large part in driving dissatisfaction with President Obama in Ohio. For some, it is an economic issue; jobs are at stake. However, for even more folks, oil and coal are priorities and values.
Ohioans think of themselves as explorers and inventors, said Curt Nichols, a Baylor University political science professor. And they have come to question the priorities of decision-makers in Washington when they arent allowed to reap the natural harvest under their feet.
How much of this dissatisfaction can be turned into votes for Romney depends on how well Romney can establish himself as the champion of these swing voters.
They want to know: Will Romney fight for them? And, if they place their faith in him, is he going to be a winner?
How important is Ohio? If money is any indicator, both campaigns have spent small fortunes on political ads in the state this summer.
Ohio has voted for the winner of every presidential election since World War II except in 1960, when it chose Richard Nixon over Jack Kennedy. It is the quintessential bellwether state, earning the motto, As goes Ohio, so goes the nation.
Nichols said many analysts believe Romney cannot win the election without carrying Ohio, a state George W. Bush won only by about 200,000 votes in 2004.
Democrats find their strongest support in Ohio along Lake Erie basically, from Toledo to Cuyahoga County and Cleveland. Republicans maintain a stronghold in the Cleveland suburbs of Geauga County.
Democrats also are strong along the Pennsylvania border around Youngstown. And they recently turned Columbus into a blue island in the red sea of central and western Ohio, where Republican support is the strongest.
The energy-rich hills of southeastern Ohio are traditionally competitive grounds for both parties, Nichols said.
U.S. Rep. Bill Johnson is a Republican representing the 6th Congressional District that covers most of that southeastern Ohio territory, which has been held historically by larger-than-life Democrats such as Ted Strickland, former congressman and governor.
According to Johnson, the region is swinging strongly for Republicans this time.
They are unhappy and disconnected by the policies of the president, he said of voters there.
He points to the health-care law and the stealth cap-and-trade regulations on the coal and natural gas industries issues on which he won a surprise victory over then-Rep. Charlie Wilson in 2010 as still fierce motivators to vote Republican.
Romney will not be able to simply rely on such extreme dissatisfaction to drive swing voters into his camp. Ohio voters are dissatisfied enough with Obama to cost him the state; however, they are not yet sold sufficiently on Romney to indicate to pollsters whether they will make the switch in November.
In short, a bad economy has provided Romney the opportunity to upset Obama. Now, he has to seize it.
To do so, Romney must find a way to connect with working men and women of America, said Nichols.
He cannot rely on economics or policy disagreements to drive dissatisfaction, he explained. Rather, Romney must exude the kind of command presence and confidence that converts potential supporters into followers.
Nichols conclusion: If Romney and his running mate, Ryan, convince the disaffected working folks of Ohio that Romney is going to win, he probably will.
That was wonderful to see
THANK you for posting
It feels so good to see people reacting to actual plans being put forth by RR instead of fainting at 0dumbo’s BS
THIS time I think people are paying attention.
Actually that just exposes the fact that Nixon actually won that election. Lot of hanky panky went on in Illinois, along with a few other states. Joe Kennedy basically bought that election for his son (and he wasn't going to pay for no landslide, dammit!)
I thought only Sarah Palin was supposed to draw crowds.
Good point. To the article, however, I think the coal/gas issue is going to work significantly to Romney’s favor in November, and a lot of former and Current Dems are going to vote for him for that reason alone, and I don’t think OH will be that close. Been wrong before, will be wrong again, but I’ve had my share of calls.
I see none of the 08 excitement for ZEro here in Dayton.
My friend in Ohio says people that he talks to are just plain tired of the nonsense from obumer.I hope its enough.
New Hampshire, PA, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, all of Nebraska, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, maybe Minnesota and maybe ME-2. I do not believe NJ is a lock for 0bummer.
Are these people who supported 0bummer in 2008?
Possible, but I think 0 takes Virginia again. Too many blacks here to overcome.
I doubt it.
McDonnell’s opponent was white. VA also elected Barack Obama and Doug Wilder.
And no it is not the “same people” that voted for McDonnell. McDonnell was elected in 2009... our governors race is in odd years with no senatorial or house races. The dem candidate was very weak and the blacks stayed home.
E X A C T L Y what I was about to say - best evidence that it was Nixon who won.
No I think Romney will do well enough in NoVa. I think he will he do well in Newport News also.
Ohio better work just as hard at purging their voter rolls & getting the voter fraud out of the elections.
Most of the OBAMA stickers I see around here are faded. Torn. Indicating of course, 4 years old. I just do not see any ground swell support for him as in last election...
ONCE AGAIN -- Ohio wasn't close.
The final margin of Bush's Ohio victory was 126,885, just under the population of Dayton (166,179) as Ohio's 7th-largest city. It was a substantial Ohio win by Bush in '04 by any measure.
To illustrate, the amount of votes that Kerry lost Ohio by, was much greater than the number of votes needed by Bush to have taken WI, PA, MI, and NH in a Reagan-like sweep -- in fact, less than 100,000.
I think PA, NJ, and MN are no’s unless Zero continues to stumble. But I think you’re ok with the rest.
Yeah, but did you hear the Missouri Republican nominee for the Senate was told by doctors it is unlikely for a rape victim to become pregnant??????
OMG, let’s freak out over THAT, instead of figuring out how to defeat Obamugabe and his stooges in the Senate!!
‘getting the voter fraud out of the elections”
I am afraid 0dumbo will stuff every ballot box or rig every machine he can
Yes, NJ... Menendez in trouble and if he is in uber Dem Sopranoland what does that say about the rest of the country...
Again watch Michigan, if the Ohio Domino falls, I see Michigan falling in line. I think Wisconsin is ours, and maybe MN too...
I agree with your list except I predict Glove will definitely win ME-02.
MN? Would be great, but I can see NJ flipping before MN.
Like I’ve said many, many times: This election won’t be close.
Yard signs in front of private homes, not in intersections or public grounds, have always been a harbinger of things to come.
Discouragingly, in the backwash of western Pa, in 08 there were surprisingly lots of BeeHOe signs. I knew it would be bad.
This year, those signs have been replaced. The “STOP THE WAR ON COAL, FIRE OBAMA” yard signs litter the country side in numbers and in places where I know coal mining union thugs prevail.
Somehow, I don’t have any sympathy for the coal miners, after all BeeHOe was a known quantity in 08, and the hard heads protected by their hard hats refused to listen. When I would point out that BeeHOe and Chains Biden boasted about what they were going to do to coal, all I got back were catcalls and threats of violence. Now, the worm has turned and its costing these fools big time.
Sorry for their setbacks, but they brought it on themselves.
This time out, I just hope that a whole lot more of them see sense and get rid of that commie pig who is strangling them, and the rest of us too.
“Glove.” LOL. For a minute I thought you were talking about Michael Jackson.
We all have our little anecdotal indicators. I start back to teaching college classes this week. That is a pretty good indicator of where the “yut” vote is. My sense going into this semester is that most of them “did their thing for the black guy” and have “been there, done that,” and have no particular support for ANY of Zero’s policies. We’ll see if that holds up.
Credit to Impy for coming up with that moniker for Willard M. Romney.
It ‘fits’ rather well...:)
WOW, are you BRAVE!
I mean that wholeheartedly. Nowadays it takes some gonads to wander into the cesspool of depravity known as the “education” system.
Good luck to you and God bless.
I don’t know what subject you are going to try to teach, but if it has anything to do with social/political issues, please make just ONE book part of their reading list.
OUR ENEMY THE STATE, by Albert Jay Nock, copywrite 1935. Most of your students will fail to comprehend what is written, because Nock wrote it on a graduate political theory level. It will sail clean over the heads of 9/10ths of undergrad students. And this is mostly because their language and communications skills and critical thinking abilities have been deliberately stymied.
On the other hand, it clearly defines the battle line between the individual and the collectivist and as such, should be required reading in every Poly Sci/Sosh 101 class.
The book and the comprehension thereof will definitely allow you to separate your students into “promising” and “cannon fodder” in short order.
Again, good luck.
Heck, 20 colleges and universities use my book "A Patriot's History of the U.S." including Rice, U of Utah, UC Santa Cruz (!), U of Missouri, Suny, Washington-Tacoma, Montreat, and many others.
I’m impressed. Patriots history of the US is as good as it gets.
Again, march on.
(Just an old Polack pig farmer from the backwash of PA.)
I live in Newport News and I am glad you brought it up because it is a great example to prove my argument. Romney will likely get about 70% of the white vote, but the city as a whole is about 40% black. Obama carried Newport News with 64% of the vote in 2008 among about 80,000 total votes cast. McDonnell lost Newport News by a total of 14 votes (49.96% to 49.92%) in 2009 among about 37,000 votes cast. These are official numbers from the State Board of Elections. Virginia is going to be a tough win.
Excellent trailer. Do you have any idea of when it will air on television? I would be interested in writing a bit about it on my blog as a type of review for my readers to be informed about it and to let them know when it will be showing.
Would you be willing to answer some questions that I submit I would use the answers in the article to help inform my readers about you and your work.
My hometown newspaper, the Enterprise Record of Chico Ca carries my blog, although you will not hear them bragging about it...LOL
I must admit that the quality of the video was very impressive and it made me want to purchase your book for my library. I am an avid student of history, both American and world. I hold to the belief that, “The more we know, the more we know we don’t know”.
I’d say MN is more likely than NJ, but not by that much. MN was about a point and a half better than NJ in 2004 and a couple points better in 2008.
I am too cautious to get on the big Glove win train.
I’ll eat the pumpkin pie after I’m done with the 270 pounds of turkey. It’s in the oven but you have to be careful about bacteria cropping up.
We are just today starting the fundraising campaign. We’ll know in a couple of months if we can get all the funding.
Thanks much. Just at the beginning.
WHAT THE HELL DOES THIS MEAN?
“Ill eat the pumpkin pie after Im done with the 270 pounds of turkey. Its in the oven but you have to be careful about bacteria cropping up.”
Are you FAUSTO CARMONA-ing?
He is saying let’s make sure we can get the wins where are suppose to get them, then go after the tough ones.
Thank you for interpreting, wise P-Dogg!
Um. Crazed iguana needles the haystack in the full moon.
Shake, shake, shake...shake your booty?
Yeah you know 270 E votes.
I love my tortured metaphors. ;d
Count the chickens when they hatch I perhaps should have said.
MN and NJ would be way extra. If Mitt wins either that means he already has around 340 even without them.
The bacteria= shite that can happen that could send the docile American fool back into the arms of Obama. Shite does happen. Just ask President Dewey, he was gonna win big time and had twice as much going for him as Romney. Lousy campaign + farm recession=Truman won. Mitt could tank in the master debates for example.
But I do believe if he does not screw up he will be the President.
“I love my tortured metaphors. ;d”
“The bacteria= shite that can happen that could send the docile American fool back into the arms of Obama. Shite does happen. Just ask President Dewey, he was gonna win big time and had twice as much going for him as Romney. Lousy campaign + farm recession=Truman won. Mitt could tank in the master debates for example.
But I do believe if he does not screw up he will be the President.”