So, you guys think about that and forget what you are calling the "oversample".
In these polls they select their sample universe AFTER they call their 1000 or so randomly selected targets.
Here that means the people who were sampled claimed, unexpectedly, to have 5% more Democrats than you want to believe exist.
The type of poll where oversampling is a problem is when they set, a priori, a quota of a sort for how many Demos, Nutballs and Reps they want, then keep calling until they get that many.
That gives the pollster much more control of the outcome ~ and it's typical of the sort of poll party professionals come up with to push the public.
There's a far more expensive polling the pros use where they get a detailed poll in every election district that affects their candidate. It's full bore polling and isn't done often ~ usually the last two weeks of a campaign.
This kind, again, is good to see what the trendline is, and it says that no matter what Obama or Romney say, do or think about ~ the audience is not responding.
That's my RACE TO THE BOTTOM thesis. That both are unlikeable and unpopular and will continue to shed factions as time goes on ~ and in the end nobody's polls will be meaningful. We've never had a race like this one!
“That’s my RACE TO THE BOTTOM thesis. That both are unlikeable and unpopular and will continue to shed factions as time goes on ~ and in the end nobody’s polls will be meaningful. We’ve never had a race like this one!”
so what is going to motivate voters to go to the polls?
It will come down to voter turn out or the ground game, which has a very large component consisting of voter enthusiasm.
Right now I would put my money on the Rep being better able to turn out their voters.
To say that Romney is “unlikeable” is premature. Most people have never heard him speak and only hear all of these negative labels from the media nonstop, so they tend to echo what they have heard. His convention speech will be his introduction to a lot of people. If he hits it out of the ballpark he can, hopefully, change these negative perceptions.