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Academic model: Romney will take 52.9% of the vote, 320 electoral votes
HotAir ^ | 08/22/2012 | Allahpundit

Posted on 08/22/2012 6:01:28 PM PDT by nhwingut

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From the article:

Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.


61 posted on 08/22/2012 10:18:28 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: SamAdams76

No, it isn’t possible. That would imply/require a level of intelligence of the population FAR above the actual level.


62 posted on 08/22/2012 10:23:54 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: nascarnation

Tis a mere bagatelle. Fun, but nothing to bet the house on.


63 posted on 08/22/2012 10:25:38 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: nhwingut; Jonty30; xzins
not good enough. Our target should be for Obama to get 0 electoral votes.

NO relaxing, NO complacency. Obama OUT, thrashed utterly, shown that his socialist policies are not wanted

64 posted on 08/22/2012 11:18:58 PM PDT by Cronos (**Marriage is about commitment, cohabitation is about convenience.**)
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To: musicman

Green Job?
DONATE

65 posted on 08/22/2012 11:22:15 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Cronos

I agree with you. The fight has to be done over every city council seat, every county council seat, every state seat, every Congressional seat.

Wherever there is an electoral seat up, it has to be assumed that the country is at stake.

I agree with you.


66 posted on 08/22/2012 11:54:12 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: cdcdawg

I agree. No major party has ever run a presidential candidate with so little experience. If he’s not black, it’s a joke.

But voters are living this experience in their own lives. In the workplace or at school, they are told they have to select the black, Hispanic, disabled or mentally ill candidate for the sake of “diversity.”. The selectee may then be held to a lower standard because a manager will be accused of discrimination if they try to correct poor behavior or performance. Others who are not so protected have to pick up the slack.

Voters see the Department of Justice refusing to prosecute civil rights violations by blacks or enforce the immigration laws against Hispanics.

Thus, I would argue that the overall voting population is Conditioned against holding a minority president to the same standards as these models held past, white incumbents. Whether because the voters are minorities who wish to retain these “gains,” or whites who fear being labeled as bigots.


67 posted on 08/23/2012 3:38:27 AM PDT by Belle22
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To: Jonty30
thanks. my biggest fear is of complacence. We don't have the perfect candidate, but he's better than Obama (well, a pigeon that had crashed head first into solid objects a dozen times would be a better president).

We also have to keep in mind the bigger picture -- shock the Democrats into realizing that the pro-gay, pro-babykilling, pro-spend other people's money tactics won't work any more.

68 posted on 08/23/2012 3:51:26 AM PDT by Cronos (**Marriage is about commitment, cohabitation is about convenience.**)
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To: nhwingut
(Art.) Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes.

Similar economic models in summer 2000 showed Gore taking the White House in a walkover with 55% of the popular vote.

</ comment>

69 posted on 08/23/2012 4:28:35 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: xzins
Any way you can return to Europe and cast out the infidels? :>)

Hey, *we* are the infidels, remember? But I understand your meaning. And I actually do know some people, who know some people. We're working on it... ;-)

70 posted on 08/23/2012 4:38:33 AM PDT by Charles Martel (Endeavor to persevere...)
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To: Aria

Utilities and mining are with Romney.

My wife is a teacher, and she’s continually bombarded with campaign trash from her union about supporting Obama.

There is still no right to work law in Ohio, and even if they opt out of the union, they can be assessed a fee for the benefits they receive from collective bargaining.

It’s totally corrupt.


71 posted on 08/23/2012 5:31:55 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: nhwingut; Hunton Peck; Diana in Wisconsin; P from Sheb; Shady; DonkeyBonker; Wisconsinlady; JPG; ...

Wisconsin projected to be in Romney column in November

FReep Mail e if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.


72 posted on 08/23/2012 6:19:16 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic (ABO)
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To: nhwingut; All

Thank God for the Academic Model. As far as the polling part: Were the polls taken BEFORE Todd Akin opened his ignorant mouth?


73 posted on 08/23/2012 9:30:41 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: paudio

Don’t probe too deeply on this paudio.... just enjoy it. We don’t get a whole lot of good news these days. LOL...


74 posted on 08/23/2012 9:33:59 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: SamAdams76

Not to discredit your dream, but for Romney to win with 74.42 percent of the vote, Obama would have to have a brain aneurysm and be in a coma.


75 posted on 08/23/2012 9:42:17 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: nascarnation; hitchwolf

Geesh! Couldn’t you guys just let us have a few minutes of enjoying the possibility of some good news before you had to go and put us in a state of depression? We don’t get good news too often and then you two guys log on to Free Republic.

LOL...... I’m not pissed or anything; I’m basically messin’ with you guys.


76 posted on 08/23/2012 9:46:33 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: cdcdawg; All

a lot of people voted for him in 2008 because of novelty, racial solidarity, and LOTS of white guilt.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

That will NOT be the case this time. Every person I know who was foolish enough to vote for Obama last time out of emotions say they will NOT make that mistake again. They feel deceived and betrayed. As far as the Blacks: The new and the novelty is gone. They’ve had their Black Prez and he has not produced for the brothas like they thought he would. He will still get 95% of the Black vote, but there will not be as many Black votes this time. They will NOT clear out the jail houses, crack houses and HO houses for Obama this go ‘round. Trust me on that.


77 posted on 08/23/2012 10:08:56 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: Cronos; All

my biggest fear is of complacence.
_____________________________________________________________

No fear Cronos. The anti-Obama crowd cannot wait to get to the polls. They are chomping at the bit. The Dem base is much less enthusiastic according to polls. There is a big “enthusiasm gap” this year and it favors the Pubbies.


78 posted on 08/23/2012 10:30:14 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: nhwingut

The question I would have is do they run this model once during the election season or multiple times? In other words, have they predicted every presidential winner since 1980 by mid-August? Or did they make the winning prediciton in November? Because if it’s the later then the predicion at this time is interesting, but for all practical purposes useless.


79 posted on 08/23/2012 10:35:56 AM PDT by Delhi Rebels (There was a row in Silver Street - the regiments was out.)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

You’re right... darn forum such as FR sometimes just brings out my zealous side. ... LOL


80 posted on 08/23/2012 1:26:30 PM PDT by paudio (Akin shares one thing with Obama: Republicans of various stripes are against them)
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