We can compare against 2004. Obama is doing about 2 or 3 points worse than Bush was. The same sources were coming up with the Job Approval numbers.
I’m skeptical of many polls, in general, mostly because they seem to use ridiculous poll assumptions (i.e., #of Democrats like it was in 2008), but the Job Approval numbers seem to have been pretty accurate for years now. So I use that as a bottom line, and based on that, the election looks close, certainly winnable for Romney (not way up for Obama, as many media people seem to think), but it’s hard to see a significant win unless Obama’s Job Approval numbers go down.
That could happen, and they’d only have to go down a little bit, like 2%, to potentially make a big difference.
There's more than JA that's going to be in play.
Just wait until WMR actually IS the Republican candidate.
The media long knives WILL come out.
It ain't gonna be pretty.