If he wins Maine and CT he wins NH easily, period.
NJ but not PA is also fairly batty.
He could afford to miss either OH or Va if he wins enough smaller states but likley not both.
I think a likely result if all goes well is (note red for Obama) 302-236
I tossed in ME-02 though I'm not sure of that. This configuration would allow a bare victory without both OH AND VA but I don't think that is likely to occur. OH and VA are the ballgame.