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Colorado Algorithm Predicts a Romney Triumph
Tea Party Tribune ^ | 2012-08-24 15:39:07 | mrcurmudgeon

Posted on 08/25/2012 5:24:34 AM PDT by morethanright

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To: randog

I’ve seen that on Intrade and IEM—what’s it called, “pump and dump”? Jack the price of the stock up and dump at the last minute.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I think a Romney win on Intrade is a bargain. Not a certainty, of course, but a bargain. Basically 5-2 odds - bid 2 to make 5. Might be worth a sizable bet, IMHO.


21 posted on 08/25/2012 9:24:37 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: Hotlanta Mike

Be nice if a Super PAC would pay for this to air all over.


22 posted on 08/25/2012 10:16:45 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: chainsaw
I suspect so as well. Total Romney blowout. No one’s life has gotten better and people have just had it. More of the same is going to solve things? yeah, right.
23 posted on 08/25/2012 12:25:32 PM PDT by warsaw44
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To: morethanright
Don't believe a computer can do a man's job.
24 posted on 08/25/2012 2:52:17 PM PDT by mcleodglen
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To: Sloth; saganite; morethanright; alloysteel; onyx; muawiyah; bigbob; BarnacleCenturion; Eccl 10:2
Technically this model hasn't predicted anything, since it was made after 2008. It retroactively matches the elections, just like global warming models are always tweaked to “predict” past data.

Very good observation - it's just a back-testing "fitting" model.

Here are better, more realistic ones.

From Fighting False Promises - B, by Thomas Donlan, 2012 August 18

Everybody understands that the race will be tight / close and focused mostly on a handful of EC states, more similar to 2000 and 2004 elections, which Bush nearly lost despite having dull, unexciting opponents and with the economy and other voters' concerns hugely favoring him both times.

Here is the "Excitement Factor" table for elections since 1976:

*** = Excitement Factor (to vote FOR)

^^ = Near Win / Loss

Presidential Candidate VP Candidate

Republicans

Gerald Ford Bob Dole
Ronald Reagan *** George H. W. Bush
George H. W. Bush Dan Quayle (***)
Bob Dole Jack Kemp ***
George W. Bush ^^ Dick Cheney ***
John McCain Sarah Palin ***
Mitt Romney Paul Ryan ***

Democrats

Jimmy Carter Walter Mondale
Walter Mondale Geraldine Ferraro ***
Michael Dukakis Lloyd Bentsen
Bill Clinton *** Al Gore
Al Gore ^^ Joe Lieberman
John Kerry ^^ John Edwards (***)
Barack Obama *** Joe Biden

For decades now the GOP establishment played the game of having the "Excitement Factor" on the VP side of the ticket, with similarly dismal results. Independents don't really vote en masse for VPs.

From Obama-Romney Race Is Focused on 7 States - AP, by Thomas Beaumont, 2012 August 25

Intrade odds, most likely, reflect these models today. Doesn't mean that Romney can't win (he is also making a play for Wisconsin and Michigan, which would increase his odds) but anyone thinking "blowout" or "wipeout" over Obama is likely to be disappointed by the outcome.

Choosing a caricature of a Republican as your candidate doesn't help - white stiff über-rich banker/financial CEO with "shady" offshore accounts and "possible" tax-avoidance issues, who keeps trying to buy elections and whose privileged life "regular" people can't relate to and may resent - but that's the Grand Old ["Stupid"] Party for you.

25 posted on 08/26/2012 4:23:29 PM PDT by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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