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To: LS

There is no such thing as the Bradley effect. It was disproven in 2008, big time. The polls were about right at the end.
That said, I think Gallup is closer in the disapproval than Ras. You simly can’t have this kind of Romney lead and still have 48% job approval.


So that said, then you are telling me there are no frustrated, angry republicans like me hanging up on pollsters and refusing to answer them, and, there are no replublicans or even moderates who are telling the pollsters what they want to hear to not look like they are anti-black? And, you are telling me there are because of these two things not oversampling of Dems? Call it something else then, all three of these things ARE going on. That is to our favor and what happened in 2010 as the Dems arrogantly thought the exit polls were right when they were wrong.


34 posted on 09/02/2012 5:43:04 PM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
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To: CincyRichieRich

Just saying, you couldn’t find it in any of the data.


39 posted on 09/02/2012 7:00:50 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: CincyRichieRich; LS

All of that is built into the margin of error and effectively minimized through scientific polling methods (i.e., polling 600 instead of 60).

Hang ups are overcome through proper model construction based on known voter registration statistics.

You can look at it as being similar to the effective elimination of stock-specific risk through the creation of a diversified portfolio.


41 posted on 09/02/2012 9:33:41 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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