Forecasting the election: Most models say Obama will win. But not all.

Thought you'd like that one ~ now, why was I following and studying a postal mail volume curve?

Well, it was simple ~ years before when i'd first noticed there were some hidden regularities in the curve, i found some other guy had visited the matter ~ and came up with the LYNCH CURVE. He built the Magellan Fund with it.

I built my Thrift Savings Plan account with it.

Alas, Accounting changed the way they reported the numbers and made it impossible to keep that up.

After the GOP loses this one, there needs to be a third party formed. A real “Conservative” party that allows young talent to rise to the top, where the party itself doesn't by decree make itself omnipotent, decide who are the winners and losers long before any vote is cast, or secretly limit the influence of grass roots while they smile and talk about how they embrace them. Then their flunky is set out front and conservatives are told “vote for our guy, or else the other worse option will win.”

The “get along” approach is causing one failed election after another. Think about it, not even with the fuel prices, unemployment, debt, an unpopular health care plan, the instability in North Africa and Middle East, shrinking net worth, a poor housing market, weakening defense; failed promises by Obama on GITMO, taxes, a forced mandate, inclusion of abortion in health care, etc will the GOP win this! Or ask yourself this, would a Ronald Reagan make it today in the GOP, a party that plasters him all over as their icon?

Note to self-

No one cares. lol

Not even with 7.9% unemployment, 16T in debt, high gas prices, an unpopular health care bill, the Libyan debacle, our failure with Iran, Israeli relations at a low point, massive defense cuts, practically no economic growth to show for, rising crime, a list of failed promises by Obama... was Romney able to win.

Mr. play it safe, the calculated business man that has well chosen words lost to an Obama. The GOP selects their guy and puts him on the ticket because this guy paid his dues and has the insider clout, i.e. McCain, Dole, Romney... I don't know why the GOP even pretends and goes through the motions of selecting their candidate? The GOP won't win not because of message, but because of “who” they choose and place out in front, telling conservatives that they now have to vote for this candidate they really aren't very comfortable with. Romney seems like a great guy (Seriously!) and would have been a good President most likely, but he didn't have what it takes to beat an Obama, am I the only one that saw that?

Elections are about emotions: name recognition, appearances, demographics, symbolism, the celebrity appeal. Education, experience, character, positions on issues, where reason comes into play, is almost irrelevant to the masses that go by their “gut feeling.”

No way would a younger and vibrant candidate like a Marco Rubio make the ticket. He hasn't “paid his dues” and needs to stand in the back of the line.

So while the Democrats have rising stars make it to the top like an Obama, the Republican do the same old shit, every Presidential election: Dole, McCain, Romney...

Worse yet, the lesson learned by the Republicans won't be to find a candidate that has appeal through appearance, charisma, demographics and good orating skills while maintaining the values, nope they will only slide to some relativistic moderate middle point that is moving around all the time, and water down their message since they believe they need a “moderate candidate,” or so their experts tell them. You watch, next elections the Republicans will still have their boring, unenergetic, stiff candidate but he'll talk about amnesty, will be more liberal regards abortion...

I hate to say it, but here is Obama, who excites all the minorities, even the Latinos, and what do we do? Put out the most white bread whitey white candidate in history. Even George W Bush, could reach out to minorities and at least get enough of their vote to win....but Romney? That dog wasn’t going to hunt.

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