Skip to comments.Democrats Like Their Chances of Holding the Senate
Posted on 09/04/2012 6:02:52 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee believes it is in a better position today than it was at the beginning of the cycle, when the lopsided number of Senate seats the party was tasked with defending in battleground states put its 53-47 majority in jeopardy.
Relative to where we started the cycle in January of last year, weve made significant improvement in our chances of holding on to the Senate, DSCC Executive Director Guy Cecil said today in an off-camera briefing with reporters at the Charlotte Convention Center. Cecil said Democrats are in a stronger position because of the quality of candidates they recruited, the fundraising of the DSCC and those candidates, and Republicans nominating candidates that the DSCC believes put a few states on the map that otherwise might be out of reach.
(Excerpt) Read more at atr.rollcall.com ...
Whistling past the graveyard?
If Obama goes down as hard as I think (hope) he will, I think Romney may have pretty long coat tails.
Delusions of granduer.
They may, but I don’t. I’m expecting the GOP to wind up with 53 or 54 seats to 44 or 45 Democrats and 2 Independents.
I doubt the big ticket will have a major effect on the down ticket races this time. I think everybody is running on their own.
Here in Michigan it looks like the democrats are just trying to hang on to seats they already have and not really trying to pick any new ones up.
I like my chances of winning the lottery.
I love it when they prognosticate.
Pelosi Says Democrats Will Keep Control of the House
“Let me just say it this way, the Democrats will retain the majority in the House of Representatives...I am not yielding one grain of sand. We are fighting for every seat.”
My congressman makes Romney look like Karl Marx. LOL
The Democrats are doing what’s called “spin,” and everyone does it, so I’ll leave it at that.
Here is how I see it.
Right now, look for two definite switches. In Nebraska, state Senator Debbie Fischer picks up, she remains a solid favorite and Bob Kerrey is yesterday’s news. In Maine, Angus King is way ahead and will caucus with the ‘Rats. Charlie Summers (R) has shaved a few points off of King’s lead, but is still well behind.
Here are the key races in ‘Rat held seats:
Wisconsin- ex-Governor Tommy Thompson is pulling ahead, he is sill well-liked as a successful Governor, while Tammy Baldwin may be too extreme for some local Democrats. Paul Ryan is helping here.
North Dakota- This was supposed to be a sure thing, but Heidi Heithkamp turned out to be a personable candidate with a a bio that appeals to the Oprah crowd, while Rick Berg has left voters uninspired. I’d be very surprised if we actually lost this, but it didn’t need to be this difficult. A real recruiting failure by Republicans.
Montana- Denny Rehberg was supposed to oust Jon Tester comfortably, but Tester is running a clever campaign and Rehberg has made some avoidable errors. Still, Rehberg is the slight favorite.
Virginia- George Allen vs. Tim Kaine is a pure tossup, with few undecideds. Allen has so far avoided errors while Kaine is trying to downplay his ideology. Look for this vote to mirror the Presidential race closely.
Connecticut- a huge shocker. Linda McMahon ran poorly in 2010 in spite of dropping $50 million dollars and no one could see why she’d do better this time. However, she has obviously leaned a lot and has improved as a candidate, while Chris Murphy wasn’t as strong as expected.
Ohio- Josh Mandel has made some needless mistakes, but he’s running competitively and has gained ground. Sherrod Brown is too liberal for some state Democrats.
Florida- The Democrat is an aging stuffed shirt who tosses cosnervatives the occasional concession, while the Republican is a punk trust fund baby with a famous name but an embarrassing past. Hard to get excited about this one, but the stakes are too high risk losing it.
New Mexico- Martin Heimrich is pulling ahead of Heather Wilson, but it’s still competitive and there is plenty oftime to turn it around.
Three Republicans are in tight races:
Indiana- Richard Mourdock got bad press because he primaried one of the MSM’s favorite Republican and Joe Donnelly is benefitting, but Donnelly’s vote for Obamacare is a big liability.
Massachusetts- Scott Brown is pulling ahead and is running the better campaign, but there is a flood of straight-ticket ‘Rat voters here and the state is more polarized than in previous decades.
Nevada- Democrats thought that Dean Heller was vulnerable, but Shelley Berkeley got caught up in an ethics investigation and is falling behind. What happened in Vegas isn’t staying in Vegas and it’s not a good way to be introduced to new voters.
Demholes pick up ME. Pubbies hold MA, IN and NV, pick up NE, ND, MT, WI, VA, OH, FLA. net R gain of 6. Bank on it. Also a long shot chance at HI, MI, CT, PA. Very, very long shot at MO.
GOP has lost MO, and we needed that one.
I don't see that changing, especially in light of the latest antics of leaving God out of the DNC party platform for the democrat convention.
What the establishment Republicans don’t understand, it not just about numbers, but ideology. A majority of backstabbing Rinos, and the next thing you know, Obama care is permanent.
As fa as I’m concerned, Obamacare is the republican’s fault.
They threw my congressman overboard after he voted against TARP. They said it was a lost cause race and they stripped him of funds. He lost by 2 points and the democrat who replaced him for 2 years voted for Obamacare. We returned my congressman to Washington in 2010.
I think they’ll be able to hold their Senate caucus in the cloakroom
They are really hitting the Kool Aid hard. LOL!!!
HI: Linda Lingle.
Yeah and I’m sure they like ice cream, but what does this report have to do with reality. I know the never argue Nebraska but EVEN Akin is not back to having a chance and could win. These silly stories always try to make North Dakota âcompetitiveâ or a âDemocrat hold.â Does anyone believe ND will vote like 70/30 for Romney and 51/49 for a Democrat? There are others but they’re on a sinking ship and they know it.
I don’t like their chances. They can do it now thanks to MO, 51-49 (or 50/50 with Biden God forbid) but it would what they call “filling an inside straight”. They did it in 2000 and 2006, this cycle can’t be so cruel 3 times in a row.
Bottom line is close or not, Berg and Rehberg will both win, period. Thompson will win. Fischer of course will win. Heller will hold Nevada, but we’ll lose Maine.
That’s 4 gains to 1 loss. That’s 50-50. They need to beat Brown to get 51. They can, it’s MA. I don’t think they will.
VA, OH, FL are all 50/50 at worst pickup chances. So just 1 would likely give us 51.
In MI 2 recent polls have showed a narrow lead for HOEKSTRA over STABMENOW. 2 other polls have her in the lead. Average them all and she is up by only 3.
CT is close in all post primary polls. Tossup in CT, I wouldn’t have thought so but there you go.
MO, it’s not over. There have not been a lot of polls since RAPEGATE but here they are: Right after but before the media storm Akin still lead by 1 in a PPP poll. McCrapskull lead by 10 in the post scandal Rasmussen, 9 in a Mason Dixon poll
A pro-Akin poll from a firm I never heard of showed him up 3. PPP from last week has Akin down only 1.
Based on this I’d say McCrapskull is up only slightly and Akin can still win as people move on.
So out of the 7 closest races (6 rat held) we need 3 for 51.
New Mexico doesn’t look good but you can’t write that off.
1 more race we could win, Hawaii though it’s hard to gage just how good Lingle’s chances are in a state Osama will win 2-1.
Other races I think we can write off (PA forget it) except NJ, Menendez is weak but favored.
No need to pretend Sanders is an independent, King either though if we have it he might seek to sit with the Republicans to increase his own power.
I forgot to mention Indiana. Not happy with the polling there.
It’s just as hard for me to picture Donnelly winning as Heidi though, what do you think?
So, am I right that if all these races go our way, we're at 60?????
Joe Donnelly has a shot, a pro-life Irish Catholic from South Bend who survived in 2010, albeit it very narrowly. Richard Mourdock has gotten bad press and some Lugar supporters are crossing over. I still rate Mourdock as a slight favorite.
MD? I think you mean Maine. FL looks fine but Mack looks like he’ll run slightly behind Romney.
If we add NE, WI, ND, MT, OH, VA, FL, MI, MO, CT, NJ, HI, NM, which is literally every seat we have a chance at that’s still just 59 if we subtract Maine. If we got that many however Angus King would probably caucus with the GOP since the democrats would be hard pressed to take control again anytime soon.
I’d be thrilled with 55 which would tie our post depression high. We could shoot for 60 in 2014 if we got around that. 2014 is filled with vulnerable and potentially vulnerable rats and almost every GOP seat looks safe. So even an a less than popular Prez Romney would not likely prevent a net gain.