If the American people vote for Obama's re-election there is not a snowballs chance in hell there will ever be a small government President elected. Regardless of Romney's past he is running now against big government and that is how he is being potrayed by Obama. Most independents have no clue about conservatives fears about Romney and see him as more conservative than Obama. If they vote for Obama anyway then it's all over for conservatives at the national level.
I think you're putting the cart before the horse - don't beliefs determine votes and not the other way around?