The reality is that, those who have had voted for Obama, and regreted their decision will either vote Obama out or stay home. This will not be 2008.
You are correct, many people who voted for “the chair” in ‘08 will stay home. This includes blacks and young people.
Since the Scott Brown senate election, all elections have been a referendum on Obama. I don’t see this election being any different. The economy sucks and they can’t get anything on R & R.
“The chair” should be ahead now comfortably 10-15 points to ensure victory. He fluctuates in the mid-40’s.....with democrat oversampling. Needs I say more?