If all the polling put together is to be believed at all, Romney is down no more that 5% at this point. That is not a bad place to be. He just needs to start gaining and keep momentum increasing through October.
You make an excellent point.
Reagan and (IIRC) Bush were both down that much in September in both their elections. Moreover, I heard yesterday that Carter was up over Reagan by 8 points in Gallup’s tracking poll in mid-October 1980. In 1984, the first polls after the Dem convention (late July) showed Mondale up five over Ronaldus Magnus. Well, we know how that one worked out...Mondale won by less than 1% in his home state!
If the polls are true, we can still win. If they’re as silly as I think they are (Up 14% among independents and running behind? How’s that math work?) this is going to be a lovely election night.