Ignore RCP. They throw in a lot of Democrat polls (PPP, Quinipiac, Daily Kos) in their averages.
It boils down to a handful of states: CO, OH, NC, VA, FL. If Romney wins all the McCain states plus these 5 he wins.
VA and NC are starting to break Romenys according to two new polls.
FL is a real toss up, but might slightly lean Romney right now.
CO and OH are breaking in 0bama’s direction, but Romney can change that with a heavy does of realistic negative ads.
A lot of folks also think Romney has a shot to also pick off IA, WI, MI, PA, NH and NV. But I don’t think he does at this point. I’m not so sure he does though.
I also look at Rasmussen. He supports Republicans and his polling was the most accurate in 2008.
His numbers are scary too.
178 safe Romney
180 safe Obama
Here’s the bad part among the swing states
15 leans Romney
46 leans Obama
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
But I am sensing the possible beginnings of a shift. Obama sympathizing with the Islamists who trashed our embassies and killed an American in Libya and Egypt will also hurt him I think.