[BroJoeK]

The appropriate metric for national defense efforts is percent of GDP over time, so here it is:

• 1.5% of GDP -- the historical US peacetime defense spending prior to President Franklin Roosevelt.

• 2.1% of GDP -- FDR's 1940 pre-war defense spending.

• 42% of GDP -- Maximum WWII defense spending.

• 7% of GDP -- President Truman's lowest 1948 defense spending.

• 15% of GDP -- President Eisenhower's maximum Korean War defense effort, 1953.

• 11% of GDP -- Kennedy / Johnson's maximum defense spending, pre-Vietnam, 1962.

• 10% of GDP -- Nixon / Ford maximum defense spending, Vietnam War, 1969.

• 5.6% of GDP -- Carter's lowest defense spending, 1979.

• 7% of GDP -- Reagan / Bush I maximum defense effort, 1985.

• 3.5% of GDP -- Clinton's lowest defense spending, 1999.

• 5.1% of GDP -- Bush II's highest defense spending, 2008.

• 5.8% of GDP -- Obama's highest defense spending, 2010.

• 4.7% of GDP -- Obama's lowest defense spending, 2012.

Of course, future spending has to be based on the understood threats, world-wide.
My suggestion is those threats are not today less than they were under Bush the Younger, and therefore roughly 5% of GDP should be an appropriate number for planning purposes.

[Phlyer]

. . . therefore roughly 5% of GDP should be an appropriate number for planning purposes.

As a long term objective I think your analysis is correct and where we should head.

Unfortunately, in the near term, due to the totally unconscionable spending of the past decade, we need to cut overall spending to something less than 20% of GDP. With current federal contractual obligations including service of the national debt, that may not leave enough for the correct long-term support for defense spending.

I work in the defense industry, and I can readily identify ways in which defense spending can be cut without reducing acquistion and support of weapons systems. I have relatives in uniform and with their second-hand information I can identify ways in which operational spending can be cut without reducing operational readiness, troop pay, or things like allowance for quarters.

I do not want cutting defense to be first on the list of ways to reduce federal spending. It's nearly the *last* item on my list of things to cut. But we must reduce spending and now - in a time of relative peace - there is justification for lower spending than when there were active wars or active competition with a major power.

And we need to get overal spending down now, including retiring as much as practical of the national debt, because in about 10 years we're going to be facing an aggressive, near-peer confrontation with both China and Russia. That means in a few years (~5) we'll need to embark on a defense buildup similar to the Reagan years.

So, my 'solution' would be to more or less hold the line on defense spending (~4.5% of GDP) for five years as part of a general spending reduction, then elevate it to ~7% when we've gotten overall spending in line.

And hope that there is enough time to do that before a major conflict arises - probably as a proxy fight with China or Russia (or both) pulling the strings on the adversary.