I'm broadly skeptical of polls this far out, but there is some— I think justifiable— concern over the tenor and strategy of Romney's campaign. Both are correctable. The first step in solving a problem is identifying it, and I fully agree with the view he needs to step up his game a good deal. Be bold, passionate, and forthright about his political objectives or go the hell home! This is not in his nature, I get that, but he will need to extend himself beyond his comfort zone and he would also be well-served to reevaluate current prevailing, lackluster guiding opinions on how he should conduct his campaign. I'd pull John Sununu up from attack dog to lead adviser.
At some point denying all polls we don't like and ignoring our senses about the overall state of the race becomes foolish. My gut tells me Romney will not win if he doesn't decisively recommit himself to winning this thing.
Ok, so I should ignore my analysis of the available data and trust “gut instinct”. The only problem with that is if the available data is correct the gut instinct advice probably is bad advice