It’s gonna be hard to win this one, but it is not impossible if we get good turnout. The left is split on this one. White suburban Obama mammas and white urban hipsers are highly motivated to vote for it. Urban blacks (by far the most numerous block) are much less motivated for it, and some are even against it. Meanwhile, white men and pretty much everyone else outside of the Balto-DC corridor is against it.
Yes, I wish it were more of a sure win for our side, and troubling that it isn’t. Can only hope, as your facts point out, that there’s a reasonably good chance of Question 6 losing.