Posted on 09/14/2012 11:44:00 AM PDT by yoe
NBC is at it again, releasing heavily Democrat oversampled polls in three key battleground states to try and make Obama look good. Problem for them is that not only where these polls taken right after the DNC convention, but the last few days have eroded any bounce Obama got from the convention. In fact, Obama trails Romney nationally according to the latest Rasmussen poll. After his bumbling and stumbling over the middle east crisis, his numbers are likely to sink even more. But for the time being, lets take a look at the three new polls released by NBC to make Obama appear invincible. In Virginia and Florida, the biased polls find Obama up by five on Romney. In probably the most important state in this election season, Ohio has Obama up by 7%, with Obama barely hitting 50%. Problem is this NBC oversamples Democrats by 10 percentage points. The sample of likely voters in Ohio is 38% Democrat, 28% Republican and 32% independent. But of course, when you oversample Democrats as much as NBC, you can nitpick stats that appear to look good for Obama. Check out NBC Obama licker Chuck Todd:
(Excerpt) Read more at fireandreamitchell.com ...
Will someone tell me why the Wall Street Journal lends its’ name to this poll? The WSJ is owned by the same people that own Fox (Newscorp), (Of course the Fox poll is pretty much of a stinker also). I still wonder why the WSJ would join with NBC on anything. Anybody got any answers?
FL currently has about 4% more D than R (40% vs. 36%) but many voters, particularly in rural northern Florida, vote solid R but are still registered D.
If you notice the none of the WSJ sections, except the editorial pages are conservative and even those are occasionally left leaning idiots. There was an anti-Romney article on the 12th by a guy named Kaminski, who doesn’t usually go left. Then, of course there is Peggy Noonan whose anti-Romney screed is being quoted everywhere.
Rasmussen and Pew are the only pols that matter.
Are you kidding? You actually believe this garbage poll?
Where’s your guts-—NEVER QUIT!
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Didn’t you notice /s ?
They are the only ones who nailed it the last 2 times. Haven’t seen a PEW lately.
I love to go over to HillBuzz and read what he has to say. There is a Gay Obama hating Democrat who has more guts and optimism than any 10 Freeper mopes combined. Then again I suspect lots of the mopers are DU plants, having fun with the pasty white Republican Tea Party people here swishing away faux mopery on their Ipad at Starbucks. Some people just have a predilection towards negativity. Could get all Jung here but why, they know why they are who they are. Jesus Crist himself could come down and become President and they would bitch and find something to be negative about. Any Freeper mopers in the Western Pa area, I am testing for my Brazilian Jui Jitsu purple belt Saturday, please show up, get in a line so I can choke you out, would be therapeutic for me and probably help you in the long run, starving the last bit of your semi working grey matter of needed oxygen.
The liberal pollsters do this every time and it never works for them. I think they do this because liberals are vain front-runners by nature and they get a kick out of thinking they are way out in front. If they had any brains, they would figure out that the best bias to put into polls (for either side) is to slant the polls towards a tie, which prevents both discouragement and overconfidence on your side. These polls are likely to actually hurt Obama by creating complacency and overconfidence among his supporters.
I also suspect that polling is becoming increasingly difficult because of all the technology people use to block annoying commercial phone calls, mainly through answering machines and caller ID. And who has the most phone blocking technology in their houses?...well higher-income conservative business people, of course, who can afford the technology and are busy doing productive work and don't want to be bothered by pollsters and tele-marketers. In the end, the results of this election may greatly surprise all but the very best pollsters.
Just to make you feel better, the last swing state poll I saw from Ramussen (if I recall the numbers correctly), had Romney leading by 46-45. If those numbers are about right, and Romney just take five points on the undecideds while one point goes for third party candidates, then Romney wins the combined swing state vote by 51-48 and wins the electoral vote by a substantial margin. The popular vote could easily end up tied. I think after the liberal exit polling debacle in 2004, conservatives and independents don't pay much attention to polls now and the polls mainly just make democrats get complacent and overconfident. One last thought: watch the attitude of Romney and Ryan, who know what's really going on in their internal polls. They look calm and confident to me.
These are the same people who believed Solydra,the Volt,and a so called Arab Spring were what was best for America..?
That Global Warming and homo marriage was the issues of our time?
That spending MORE money, that is not back up by anything, is the solution to our economy?
The moonbeam and magic unicorn people know what is best?
In 2009, Republicans outvoted Democrats in Virginia by about 56% to 40%.
In 2010, Republicans won 8 out of 11 congressional seats.
In 2011, republicans again outvoted democrats by over 16% — only a remarkable bit of gerrymandering gave democrats a 20-20 split in our state senate, while in the house republicans have a virtual supermajority.
Obama could win Virginia. But there is no way democrats outnumber republicans.
I’ve seen biased polling but the polls this year take the cake. I’m not concerned though. It just means a lot more motivation for our side to get to the polls. If the Democrats and press want to be in denial its their mental health bill later. :-)
Thanks for explaining the basics to those who may have failed English 101. I wrongfully assumed that everyone on this board understood the sarcasm tag, especially someone with
a 2004 join date!!!
Enjoyed reading your bio and totally concur with your viewpoint and November outcome.
SJB
LQB
As an Ohioan, let me assure you that +10 for democrats in this state is laughable.
This has been a nearly equally balanced state for generations...not just for years.
It currently has a republican house, senate, supreme court, and governor. If that doesn’t show the ridiculousness of democrat +10, then nothing will.
As I understand it, all “likely voter” polls are manipulated based on expected turnout of different demographics. So it doesn’t matter how many Ds or Rs they sampled. The final numbers have already been adjusted based on expected turnout of Ds and Rs, men and women, income groups, races, etc.
As I understand it, all “likely voter” polls are manipulated based on expected turnout of different demographics. So it doesn’t matter how many Ds or Rs they sampled. The final numbers have already been adjusted based on expected turnout of Ds and Rs, men and women, income groups, races, etc.
That’s the purpose of weighting that is applied to the raw data collected. It is an attempt no matter how many you poll to get the numbers back to the basic demographic profile. Some pollsters will provide the weighting factors while others are harder to find.
Also different methods of collecting the data can influence the info. Example, Rassmussen uses a machine to make the call thus anyone that answers can provide the answers whether they be a child, non voter, etc. Also Ras doesn’t make call backs if he gets a non answer he just moves on to another number. Or that is my understanding.
How does overall voter registration look in those states? What percentage of voters belong to each party?
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