I think the pollsters are wrong using 2008 percentages for sampling now
but I would worry more about the last week of polling baring a big surprise..which would be trailing and not caught likely...2000 missed a bit of Bush’s DUI final days which almost cost him the enchilada
if the election were to diverge significantly from the aggregate of the final week’s polling it would be the first time since..well ..Dewey
Romney does not excite so I do not think we will attain your 2010 model...and Obamacare is not as fresh
The waxing the Dems would take in 2010 was clearly foretold by the polls..but I think we beat the polls by a couple of points turnout wise
But I do think we will beat them over 2008 Dem-GOP turnout
if 59% of vote is white we win...any less and we better have a low minority turnout of both dead or alive voters there
There have been a lot of good points raised here.
This is responds to a bunch of different posts.
The polls will be more accurate in the last week or so before the election. The pollsters will adjust their voting models so that the ‘result’ will be accurate. This will be spun as dramatic changes which usually don’t occur.
Presidential Elections are about the incumbent. As long as Romney don’t do something stupid, this election will be a referendum on OBAMA. The Obama approval ratings have been in the mid 40’s, his vote total will closely mirror his approval rating.
The dem registration has gone down in the swing states by 800k since 2010, the R registration is down 80k. This doesn’t bode well for the dems in this election.
There is also an enthusiasm gap between R’s and D’s that favors the R’s.
These things point to a turnout model that will IMO be as good or better than 2010. I think people really don’t like Obama.
State Polls tend to be less accurate than national polls, not sure why. However if Romney wins nationally by say %5 in the popular vote there is no way he loses the electoral college.
The campaigns get polls that are far more accurate than anything in the public polls. If you look at the campaigns their behavior tells you a lot about what they are ‘seeing’ in their internal polls.
The Obama campaign is going totally negative, wild charges OTOH Romney is being soft in their critique. IMO this indicates who thinks they are winning and who is desperate.
The media also understands that Obama being behind by double digits with independents means he is toast unless something changes. Note the under sampling of Indies in some polls (along with the under sampling of R’s in almost/all polls), and the lack of mention of Indies in the reporting of these polls.
Do you think that The media would report the results of independents if Obama was UP by double digits???? ;)
dvwjr great job on the CNN poll, like I said if you ‘normalize’ the turnout model the polls are consistent and show Romney with a big lead, that can move to a landslide.
IMO the money advantage for Romney over the last 30 days will lock down these numbers.