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Israel Strikes Iran: Worst Case Scenario
Family Security Matters ^ | September 15, 2012 | KYLE SHIDELER

Posted on 09/15/2012 1:22:49 AM PDT by CaptainKrunch

The tension in the Middle East is palpable. More potential triggers for regional conflict exist at this time, than any in recent memory. As Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Aviv Kochavi recently warned the IDF senior leadership during an annual situational assessment held Monday, August 27th, "It will be an environment dealing with a series of crises - regional and domestic - which raises the threshold of sensitivity of all the players and may lead - even without advance planning - to flare-ups." 

While it's seemingly impossible to "expect the unexpected", it is possible to expect the worst and plan accordingly. For that reason, attempting to examine a "worst case scenario" for a future regional conflict is a useful thought exercise.

Imagine for a moment it's an unseasonably warm evening in October, Iranian Air Defense commanders are surveying their radars, and the coast seems clear. Suddenly the screen blips out. The commander attempts to reach his superiors in Tehran's Ministry Of Defense. There is no response. Israeli electronic-  and cyber-warfare are targeting Tehran's air defense and command and control systems at the very moment that a large wave of fighter-bombers, representing the core strength of the IAF, come screaming overhead.

 An Israeli Dolphin-class submarine  surfaces at the limits of its 1500-km cruise missile range just long enough to launch, its missiles targeting the residences of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khamenei, and top Iranian commanders in a decapitation strike. While some members of the Iranian high command are killed, the primary key figures, including Khamenei, survive.

Keep reading...



TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS:
Facinating.  Reads like a Tom Clancy novel.  There are brilliant minds out there cooking the scenarios.  To me, this scenario suggests that Israel should wait to see if there will be a friendly American adimistration next January before they launch a strike.  Of course, Iran anticipates this and would want to launch their own strike with the "friendly" Hussein admin. in place.  Which might be why Netanyahu is coming out recently with dire warnings of an Israeli strike.  An attempt to warn off Iran from striking while the muslim friendly Hussein administration is still in place. 

 

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1 posted on 09/15/2012 1:22:56 AM PDT by CaptainKrunch
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To: CaptainKrunch

Certainly interesting analysis. It goes specifically deeper than most I have seen; meaning a few moves deeper into the scenario. However, while it would be obvious that oil shoots up on the world market either from outright disruption of supply coming out of the Gulf, fearful speculation, or both, the author doesn’t address it here.

This would also have lasting impacts to other regions-—namely Asia. Does China’s economy finally hit the wall as a result? Knowing this, do they overtly try to influence events and ensure continuation of their oil supply militarily? I would say yes.

If various hits on the American soft targets take off, the resulting economic damage on that front, and any resulting civil liberty consequences.

Finally, the scenario presumes an Iranian nuclear program is only delayed. Therefore it is assumed inevitable that Iran or a proxy at some point will set off a nuke either against Israel or the USA, or both, in retaliation.


2 posted on 09/15/2012 2:14:49 AM PDT by Sam's Army
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To: CaptainKrunch

Holy Crap, I thought the balloon went up!

Thanks for the coronary ;o)


3 posted on 09/15/2012 2:17:46 AM PDT by papertyger
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To: CaptainKrunch
Here is another scenario: Bibi Netanyahu authorizes an actual nuclear strike on Tehran, wiping that city from the face of the Earth to join Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the history books.

Post-strike, he makes a very direct and simple statement of fact:

"Today Israel has taken the step of eliminating one of the worst terrorist states the world has seen in this region since Islamic extremists seized power in 1978. What is now left of Tehran is exactly what the now dead mullahs and their puppet Ahmadinejad wished to inflict upon our Nation. We did not make this decision easily, or lightly. Just as the American President Harry Truman decided upon the use of nuclear weapons in 1945 against their enemies, that decision, like ours, was made in the interest of ultimately saving larger numbers of lives. And like President Truman and the Presidents who followed him, Israel is fully prepared to use the weapons of our arsenal to deter further aggression from any enemy posing a threat to Israel...

...Israel is not going anywhere, we are here to stay. We prefer to stay, and to live, in peace with our neighbors. It is unfortunate that the history of our neighbors over more than six decades has been mottled with continuing hostility, hate and violence. The worst of those neighbors has now been dealt a crippling and fatal blow. If the remaining governmental entities in Iran wish to prevent further nuclear strikes upon their nation, they must surrender at once and without condition. Israel is prepared to accept that surrender from Iran's United Nations representative, and I urge them to take that step promptly. To our other neighbors, Israel extends the hand of friendship and mutual co-existence and recognition. Iran rejected that hand and sought the destruction of Israel. They have now paid the price for that unwise decision. Iran wanted a nuke. They have now received one, although not in the way they expected. There need not be a further demonstration of Israeli resolve unless our enemies make no other choice possible. Thank you."
4 posted on 09/15/2012 2:28:36 AM PDT by mkjessup (Jimmy Carter is the Skidmark in America's panties, 0bama is the yellow stain in front!)
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To: CaptainKrunch

I have a feeling Iran will strike first, a dirty nuke smuggled in a shipping container will go off first. Iran will find some way to smuggle a nuke in by boat, by sub, or even by camel.


5 posted on 09/15/2012 2:53:19 AM PDT by Eye of Unk (OPSEC)
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To: CaptainKrunch

The best possible scenario: Israel nukes Iran. The sooner the better. Any other ideas are just fantasy on the Unicorn Farm.

Israel, let’s roll!


6 posted on 09/15/2012 2:57:12 AM PDT by jonrick46 (Countdown to 11-06-2012)
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To: mkjessup

You’re forgetting the “other” nut-jobs with nukes, Pahkeestan!


7 posted on 09/15/2012 3:56:48 AM PDT by old school
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To: jonrick46

8 posted on 09/15/2012 4:22:05 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: CaptainKrunch

“Worst case scenario” leaves out one major thing:

Obama “postpones” the election “indefinitely” due to the threat of all-out nuclear war in the Middle East as the situation is too critical to involve the transfer of the Presidency until things settle down - which they will never do, allowing him unlimited time as POTUS.

US citizens protest, nothing changes, then begin to revolt. Obama declares martial law, and posse commitus is instituted, with US military receiving orders to “control” the US population.

Large numbers of the military officers refuse to obey Obama (NOTE: oath sworn by officers and enlisted is DIFFERENT: Officer’s oath is to the Constitution; Enlisted oath is to the President), but some do. The military is rendered wholly ineffective.

Seeing chaos here, one of our big enemies - China or Russia - sees an opportune moment to take major action to permanently cripple the US and take turf around the world.

How’s that for Tom Clancy?


9 posted on 09/15/2012 4:37:29 AM PDT by Arlis (.)
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To: CaptainKrunch

At this point in hindsight we should have seized the ME oil fields when we were over there in 91


10 posted on 09/15/2012 4:45:03 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: Arlis

You forgot because of all the chaos medical and food supplies are completely screwed up and we have riots and starvation and tens of millions of deaths


11 posted on 09/15/2012 4:47:21 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: Eye of Unk

I think we’re the ones that will be hit with a dirty nuke. Venezuela’s detention of an American ship is worrisome. I don’t think it will come in a container. I think it will be installed in a ship or multiple ships in an area where it will not be detected. Once that ship enters the target port the weapon will be detonated. The ship will continue to carry freight as before with no change in routine.

This means any ship in a foreign port that undergoes repairs or is seized by pirates with the crew removed can be turned into a floating bomb.

I’m not convinced Israel will bomb all of the targets from the air. I think some will may be Entebbeed. They will be destroyed from the inside.


12 posted on 09/15/2012 4:56:25 AM PDT by meatloaf (Support Senate S 1863 & House Bill 1380 to eliminate oil slavery.)
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To: uncbob

Check my tagline for a sure way to start the Middle East on the road to irrelevance.


13 posted on 09/15/2012 4:58:02 AM PDT by meatloaf (Support Senate S 1863 & House Bill 1380 to eliminate oil slavery.)
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To: meatloaf

They say our ports have the best in detection gear, they even claim they can detect a concealed nuke device embedded in a massive solid lead keel in a large sailboat.

And these agencies have been saying for almost ten years that Iran will be 12-24 months away from making a nuclear device.

Its all bullshit, these countries can just buy a surplus one from the russkies. And a nuke going off inside America may be just hours away, and we cannot do a damm thing about it.


14 posted on 09/15/2012 5:08:31 AM PDT by Eye of Unk (OPSEC)
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To: CaptainKrunch

The key to the worst case noted is missing the Iranian leaders.

The Iranian leaders must be killed or nearly killed, as in near mortal wounds, in the first strike. Perhaps two air craft should be delegated as a first strike on Hezbollah command.


15 posted on 09/15/2012 5:14:44 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: Eye of Unk

Iran has already struck. The events currently unfolding are instigated by Iranian planners and implemented by surrogates.

Iran dose not dirty it’s hands. That is what they have paid staff and minions for.


16 posted on 09/15/2012 5:18:59 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: uncbob

We do not seize the property friends.

Besides, seizing and successfully occupying are totally different


17 posted on 09/15/2012 5:22:00 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: bert

When we have to send our military over to Gulf to keep the strait open as we did in the 80s when Iran and Iraq were going at it and when we have to send our military over to LIBERATE Kuwait and protect Saudia Arabia and keep a bunch of $$$$$$$$ Sheiks in power then we have the right to seize what we need since the producers are helpless


18 posted on 09/15/2012 5:28:47 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: mkjessup

I like this scenario much better...more believable and very effective.


19 posted on 09/15/2012 5:31:57 AM PDT by Rumplemeyer (The GOP should stand its ground - and fix Bayonets)
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To: CaptainKrunch

About the only un-surveiled assets the Israelis have are their sub-launched cruise missiles. Anything leaving Israel proper will be called-in to Iranian intel centers long before reaching Iran. It is presumable Iran could have a launch on warning policy.

I think it would be very difficult to take out their C4I before they would launch a counter strike. Their C4I is most likely the first target and it is reasonable there are multiple redundancies built into the system.


20 posted on 09/15/2012 5:55:26 AM PDT by Justa
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To: uncbob

Didn’t forget! Just had to end the thing somewhere! ;-)


21 posted on 09/15/2012 6:02:48 AM PDT by Arlis (.)
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To: mkjessup

I like that option. I don’t think Israel will do it though.


22 posted on 09/15/2012 6:18:39 AM PDT by ScubieNuc (When there is no justice in the laws, justice is left to the outlaws.)
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To: CaptainKrunch; Sam's Army; mkjessup; Eye of Unk

One of the things that has been pointed out to me over the years is that the Islamics as a whole simply do not think or fight western style if they can avoid it. They prefer “subtlety” and letting others shed their blood to achieve their goals.

Part of that makeup is the usage of assassins, that too can be expanded into the concept of a tiny force achieving maximal impact. Terrorism fits that mold very well as well as the concept of WMD as long as it’s untraceable to the point of origin.

So with that out of the way, I too think that war in the middle east with Israel being used as the patsy and the “reason” is inevitable. The real targets though are the other Islamics involved, Shiite, Sunni, Wahhabi, Salafist and who knows how many other schisms there are now.

Because of that, I expect the usage of WMD’s are about to be deployed. Israel thinks “western” and will use Nuclear devices. The others though? They think “Islamic”, which is in many ways very different than “Eastern”. I expect them to use Chemicals and Disease if they can get away with it.

As for the United States, it’s a no win situation, no matter which way it goes over there. The best I think is to not be drawn in as “Mercenaries” using “Interests of the United States” as a reason. It’s time to let them shed their own blood and find out how utterly terrible modern warfare can be.


23 posted on 09/15/2012 6:37:27 AM PDT by The Working Man
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To: Sam's Army

Kind of like the road to Munich approach - a Chamberlain take on the issue? Practical - looking at short term costs?


24 posted on 09/15/2012 7:39:26 AM PDT by GOPJ (first they came for those clinging to their guns and religion, and I did not speak out....)
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To: uncbob

“At this point in hindsight we should have seized the ME oil fields when we were over there in 91”

No.

We should have done that during the -first- “Arab oil embargo” of the early 1970’s.

If we had used force then, none of this would be happening today.


25 posted on 09/15/2012 7:47:58 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: mkjessup
There'll be fewer deaths if the initial attack is strong enough to discourage reprisal.
26 posted on 09/15/2012 7:56:18 AM PDT by GOPJ (first they came for those clinging to their guns and religion, and I did not speak out....)
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To: mkjessup
Iran wanted a nuke. They have now received one, although not in the way they expected.

Abso-freaking-lutely BRILLIANT line! I love it!

One thing about the article, I don't think that the Israeli Dolphin-class SSes need to surface to launch their cruise missiles.
27 posted on 09/15/2012 8:09:00 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: CaptainKrunch
The Popeye Turbo SLCM is fired from the four 25.5-inch (650 mm) torpedo tubes on the Dolphin-class boats. The missile has a range of 1,500 km (930 miles) and carries a 200 kg nuclear warhead. Speed is about Mach 0.9. Launch is similar to the American UGM-109 Tomahawk: the missile in its buoyant launch container is ejected from the submarine's torpedo tube; it floats to the surface, and as soon as it breaks the surface, the missile launches itself from the container. The launch container sinks to the ocean floor.
28 posted on 09/15/2012 10:04:46 AM PDT by MasterGunner01
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To: Road Glide

Can’t dispute that but the USSR was still a major power then and aiding the arabs


29 posted on 09/15/2012 4:49:07 PM PDT by uncbob
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