Run a McCain style presidential campaign..get a McCain presidential result.....vanity discussion

[MNJohnnie]

Wow waited a whole 28 seconds to make your reply. How about your consider the point I made BEFORE you respond.

[smashtheleft]

Rasmussen has 37.6% of the voters as GOP, 32.4% of American voters as Democrats.

That was pretty much flipped in 2008.

Polls which ask “Are you absolutely sure you will vote in 2012” the GOP has a 6 to 15 point lead over the Democrats (polls I have seen).

It would also seem that Romney consistently has a marginal lead among independents.

This election is all turn out. Democrats have to severely over perform for Obama to win. I find it interesting that most of these polls showing Obama in the lead are making the assumption the split will look like 2008 when it was 36 Dem, 30 GOP and 34 independent.

If that happens again, Obama wins. However I see the chances of that happening again to be pretty close to zero. IF there are substantially more Republicans than Democrats and IF Republicans are more motivated to show up and IF Romney leads among independents then Romney wins. Polling data consistently shows these three ‘IF’s’ to be true at the moment.

The huge number of polls which have been performed to this point, for which you can see the internals, the data has pretty much normalized. We are very consistent in how many Dems and Republicans support Obama and Romney, how many married men, unmarried women, whites, hispanics, etc etc etc. Those have all closed to a narrow range in most of the polls. There are not any more polls showing that 20% of this category supports Romney, while another firms poll shows that 50% of the same category supports Romney. They are all in a narrow band within the internals when broken out by category.

The only unknown key variable is the turn out for each of these categories. If the turnout is like 2008, Romney loses. Pretty simple. If the turnout reflects the current polling data for voter enthusiasm and party registration Romney wins. Each of these polls is projecting what that turn out will be to produce final numbers for who is in the lead.

Granted, no one actually knows what that turn out will be on election day so in theory each imaginary argument (at this point) is as valid as the other. However when the other data is entered into the equation I find it unlikely that more Democrats that Republicans will show up and vote in 2012. Obama’s other path to victory is a huge swing in independents which so far has failed to materialize.

I would say Romney is in a pretty strong position right now.

[dforest]

I actually agree with you. I am waiting for the start of a campaign. I haven’t seen one yet.

Part of the problem is that only swing states get much attention anymore.

That said, we are waiting...and waiting.

This election should be very winnable, only if one bothers to stand up and take command.

[patriot08]

.

Will America be lost because noone had the guts to expose Obama?

The best Obama exposure site on the net:
(by our own FReeper, Beckwith)

The Obama File
http://www.theobamafile.com/index_next_personal.html

The United States Library of Congress has selected
TheObamaFile.com for inclusion in its historic collection
of Internet materials
http://theobamafile.com/LibraryOfCongress.html

Just a few of the pages:

http://www.theobamafile.com/index_next_politics.html

http://www.theobamafile.com/BarackObama.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/_family/FamilyPage.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaEducation.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaPsychology.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaReligion.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaWife.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/_associates/ObamaAssociates.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaIconography.htm

.

.