I might also add that Akin, Steelman, and Brunner held a series of debates televised statewide. They also ran ads against one another in a bruising, tough primary. So exactly how much did those few ads have on the primary election? Could it even be quantified?
Well, Bruner spent a ton of money $7+ million. Mostly he was self-funded. Steelman a good amount, maybe $1 million. Akin, I’m kind of guessing here, since he has only spent $2 million altogether, maybe $1 million. McCaskill spent $2 million in “anti-Akin” ads during the Republican primary (she has spent $9 million altogether). Finally, outside Democrat groups spent $1.5 million in “anti-Akin” ads. (This is the figure that is usually quoted.)
There’s hardly any evidence that Democrats voted in the Republican primary, just a few scattered sightings here and there. Akin won because he was “the true conservative.” Indeed, he said himself he was “the true conservative” as the phrase resonated with his voters. Akin won the primary something like 35 to 30 to 30 percent, a real split of the vote. All in all, he was very lucky. Then he slipped on a banana peel!
With a few million dollars, Akin could make this a race. That he isn’t further behind and is even tied or ahead in some polls (perhaps suspect), with such an avalanche of spending by McCaskill, shows the potential. Obviously, the Democrats are going to spend a lot in Missouri; but, even so, this reduces the amount they’ll have for Virginia, Ohio and other Senate races where we have a fair to good prospects.